The Orange Blossom Classic SYC/RJCC/Y8

Y-14 Men's Saber

Saturday, November 8, 2025 at 12:00 PM

Caribe Royale Orlando - Orlando, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LUCAS William	-	-	-	2%	12%	40%	46%
2	CAO HAOTIAN	-	2%	14%	33%	36%	14%
3	YANG Justin	2%	15%	32%	33%	16%	3%
3	BABY Henry	4%	22%	36%	26%	9%	2%	-
5	LIU Jayden	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
6	SHAPIRO Leo	-	1%	6%	20%	35%	30%	9%
7	CHEN Leo	1%	8%	26%	38%	23%	5%
8	BI JIAJUN	-	-	3%	13%	31%	37%	16%
9	YUEN Caleb	-	5%	24%	43%	27%
10	LU Simon	-	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
11	D'AMELJ Edoardo	-	-	4%	18%	38%	33%	8%
12	FAVO Christopher	1%	14%	37%	36%	11%
13	FU BRANDEN	-	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
14	BROOKS Drake	-	5%	19%	33%	29%	12%	2%
15	LI Kent	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
16	ZHANG Caleb	7%	28%	37%	21%	5%	1%
17	ARRANT Mason	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	5%
18	SHANKAR Rahm	-	5%	19%	36%	30%	10%
19	KIM Junseong	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	26%
20	SHEN Alaric	6%	27%	39%	22%	6%	1%	-
22	WANG David	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	3%
23	TITOV Zachary	-	2%	11%	31%	37%	17%	2%
24	EVANS Alexander	-	4%	17%	36%	31%	11%	1%
25	KAUL Ishaan	-	3%	14%	32%	36%	16%
26	KRISHNARASA Aiyann	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%
27	SALMAN Ibrahim	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%
27	DEGUZMAN Holden	8%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
29	DUFF Michael	2%	16%	39%	34%	9%
30	SABINO Bennett	7%	33%	40%	18%	3%
31	CHAN Ewan	3%	18%	34%	30%	13%	2%
32	BARRIONUEVO Nicolas	16%	38%	32%	13%	2%	-
33	BRADY Jack	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	10%
34	O'KEEFE Brody	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%
35	RIMMELE Sven Yan	20%	40%	29%	9%	1%	-
36	BERGAN Chase	26%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-
37	JI Derek	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
38	LIANG Jialin	54%	37%	9%	1%	-
39	LAN Jasper	3%	19%	35%	29%	12%	2%	-
40	RAHMAN Noah	16%	40%	32%	10%	2%	-	-
41	EVANS Andre	< 1%	3%	16%	36%	34%	10%
42	PROSPER Nathaniel	24%	43%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
43	UCHIYAMA Lucas	43%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
44	HUANG ASHER	40%	41%	16%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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