GRAFA RYC\RJCC\ROC- Third Coast Cup

Cadet Women's Foil

Saturday, November 8, 2025 at 8:00 AM

MSA Fieldhouse - GRAND RAPIDS, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	AADHI Hansika	-	-	1%	10%	45%	44%
2	CULLIVAN Sienna	-	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	27%
3	ZOLDAN Gweniveve A.	-	-	1%	7%	24%	41%	28%
3	HU Sophie	-	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%
5	MUMMANENI Samyuta	-	-	2%	18%	51%	28%
6	HOROWITZ Shuli	-	-	-	4%	21%	44%	31%
7	HARRIS Parker	-	-	-	2%	14%	41%	43%
8	BOIKE Lucille	-	-	1%	8%	30%	43%	18%
9	HUSSIAN Annabelle	-	1%	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%
10	SALMI-BYDALEK Ada	-	3%	16%	35%	32%	12%	1%
11	SUN Nicole	-	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%
12	HUANG Natalie	-	-	5%	21%	39%	28%	7%
13	OS Danielle	-	-	5%	21%	38%	29%	7%
14	MORSE Katherine	-	3%	15%	31%	32%	15%	3%
15	KNAPP Isabella	-	-	2%	12%	34%	38%	14%
16	LIN Kenzie	-	-	5%	24%	41%	24%	4%
17	CHOI JULIE	-	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
18	SONG Erin	-	3%	13%	30%	34%	17%	3%
19	YARLAGADDA Smaya	20%	48%	27%	5%	< 1%	-	-
20	BELL Blake	34%	48%	16%	2%	-	-
21	DIRKES Catherine	-	4%	18%	35%	30%	12%	2%
22	FECHER Lily	-	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%
23	CHUNG Stella	-	2%	16%	40%	31%	9%	1%
24	KASHUBA Mila	1%	18%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-
25	BLAKEY Heaven	-	6%	30%	46%	16%	2%
26	KIM Yuna	1%	7%	23%	35%	26%	9%	1%
27	LEGGETT Emilia	1%	18%	39%	31%	10%	1%	-
28	KOSCIK-AQUINO Emily	9%	31%	37%	18%	4%	-	-
29	LIN Aria	45%	43%	12%	1%	-	-	-
30	LIN Athena	20%	40%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
31	ZHOU Jolena	39%	41%	16%	3%	-	-	-
32	KHAN Leena	2%	19%	47%	28%	4%	-
33	YU Angela	5%	37%	39%	16%	3%	-	-
34	SAMALA Reese	-	10%	33%	37%	16%	3%	-
35	NEPAL Noukou Asha	34%	48%	16%	2%	-	-
36	NAFSOU Ava	-	4%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
37	KRONZER Sophia	13%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
38	WOERTER Therese-Margaret	3%	21%	44%	25%	6%	1%	-
39	UTIN Alexandra	8%	32%	36%	19%	5%	1%	-
40	PHUNG Caitlin	89%	11%	-	-	-	-	-
41	KU Amanda	74%	24%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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