GRAFA RYC\RJCC\ROC- Third Coast Cup

Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, November 9, 2025 at 8:00 AM

MSA Fieldhouse - GRAND RAPIDS, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KNAPP Isabella	-	-	-	2%	24%	74%
2	HU Sophie	-	-	-	1%	10%	38%	51%
3	HUANG Natalie	-	-	2%	12%	40%	46%
3	HOROWITZ Shuli	-	-	-	-	6%	34%	59%
5	BOIKE Lucille	-	-	-	1%	22%	77%
6	SALMI-BYDALEK Ada	-	-	2%	11%	35%	44%	8%
7	DHALIWAL Seerat	-	-	2%	21%	64%	13%
8	KASHUBA Mila	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	12%
9	CULLIVAN Sienna	-	-	-	-	3%	25%	72%
10	SUN Nicole	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	32%
11	CHUNG Stella	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	23%	3%
12	LEE Eun-Hae	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%	-
13	KIM Yuna	-	1%	7%	24%	39%	25%	4%
14	KOSCIK-AQUINO Emily	10%	34%	38%	16%	2%	-
15	HUANG Rosalyn	7%	26%	37%	24%	6%	1%
16	SHUSTA Lily	-	-	3%	16%	39%	35%	7%
17	HUANG Emma	-	5%	23%	41%	27%	4%
18	LIN Athena	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%	-
19	GONZALEZ Lauren	3%	22%	42%	27%	6%	-
20	ZHANG Selina	1%	6%	22%	38%	28%	6%
21	ZHOU Jolena	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
22	CULLIVAN Elise	2%	16%	38%	31%	11%	2%	-
23	JIMÉNEZ PELAY Claudia	26%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-	-
24	SAMALA Reese	-	2%	16%	39%	33%	9%	1%
25	YARLAGADDA Smaya	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%	-
26	BELL Blake	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-
27	UTIN Alexandra	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	-
28	KU Amanda	25%	43%	26%	6%	-	-
29	KANASZ Peyton	10%	35%	40%	15%	1%	-
30	BADER Mia	-	2%	14%	33%	36%	14%	1%
31	LALONDE Beatrice	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
32	CHAN Chloe	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
33	NEPAL Noukou Asha	3%	27%	46%	21%	2%	-
34	HEWITT Madison	11%	36%	36%	15%	3%	-	-
35	MILLER Sydney	46%	40%	12%	2%	-	-
36	MA Sophie	4%	21%	41%	30%	4%	-
37	LIU Doris	12%	38%	37%	12%	1%	-
38	REDEMANN Reagan	13%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
39	JAGARLAMUDI Himanshu	37%	42%	17%	3%	-	-	-
40	MARTIN Avery	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	1%	-
41	FAROOQI Eliora	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-	-
42	VANDEVEN Ingrid	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
43	DALY Ava	1%	18%	40%	31%	9%	-
43	DALY Layla	< 1%	9%	37%	40%	13%	-
45	KRYSKO Zlata	1%	18%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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