The Sledgehammer 2025 RYC | RJCC

Y-12 Women's Épée

Saturday, November 22, 2025 at 12:30 PM

Elizabeth B. Searle '74 Athletic Center at Garrison Forest School - Owings Mills, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	QI Chelsie	-	1%	8%	31%	42%	19%
2	CHANG Hannah	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	22%
3	FAN Joy	-	-	-	4%	19%	43%	35%
3	CHUNG Yenna	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
5	KWON Allison	2%	15%	34%	34%	14%	2%
6	JUBILEE Beata	-	-	3%	15%	41%	42%
7	ZHAO Crystal	5%	22%	37%	28%	8%	-
8	BEREKNYEI Sophia	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	7%
9	URICHECK Julianna	-	1%	10%	33%	40%	16%
10	WEBB Ensley	9%	30%	36%	19%	5%	-
11	HONG Catherine	-	-	3%	14%	35%	37%	11%
12	LAU Carys Bella	2%	15%	34%	32%	14%	2%	-
13	KIM Kate	1%	6%	25%	39%	25%	4%
14	LEWIN Isabelle	1%	6%	24%	39%	25%	5%
15	RYU Natalee	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%
16	LEE Vivian	-	2%	12%	30%	35%	17%	3%
17	KIM Lina	6%	29%	38%	21%	5%	1%	-
18	WANG Jenny wang	9%	41%	36%	12%	2%	-
19	CHANEY Evelyn	-	1%	10%	33%	40%	16%
20	ADLER Anneliese	1%	13%	33%	35%	16%	2%
21	JANG Daniella	4%	24%	39%	25%	7%	1%
22	KOLPAK Carolina	-	-	4%	20%	44%	31%
23	XU Alivia	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	13%
24	SONDHI Maahi	1%	11%	31%	35%	17%	4%	-
25	WILKERSON Annaliese	6%	28%	42%	20%	4%	-
26	LOYCH Charity	5%	26%	39%	23%	6%	1%
27	ZHANG Ann	29%	44%	22%	4%	-	-
28	BEDNAR Clara	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-
29	LEE JiWon	47%	41%	11%	1%	-	-
30	WILKERSON Katherine	41%	41%	15%	3%	-	-	-
31	PARIZAT Maya	46%	39%	12%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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