Cozmx Fall RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Women's Épée

Sunday, November 23, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Capital Sports Center - McClellan Park, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LI Yixin	-	-	-	-	7%	93%
2	FISCHBEIN Quinley	-	-	-	1%	6%	32%	61%
3	LI Anna	-	-	-	8%	42%	50%
3	ERISMAN Gabriella	-	-	2%	20%	53%	25%
5	RASHID Summer	-	1%	6%	26%	44%	24%
6	DYMAR Anna	-	-	-	1%	8%	36%	56%
7	ZHAO Ellie	-	-	4%	17%	36%	35%	8%
8	CHO Jacey	-	-	2%	11%	29%	38%	19%
9	CHO Anya	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%
10	LI Ariel	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	14%
11	LI Allison	-	-	4%	18%	38%	33%	6%
12	GRAZIANO Ruby Mae	-	3%	16%	39%	34%	9%
13	ZU Jacqueline	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
14	VIJAY Vaishnavi	-	1%	8%	30%	42%	19%
15	SINGLETARY Iona	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%	-
16	VISHWA Nishta	44%	40%	14%	2%	-	-
17	LEE Rebecca	5%	21%	34%	27%	11%	2%	-
18	LEONG Andrea	1%	9%	25%	33%	23%	7%	1%
19	HUANG Sophie	3%	17%	33%	30%	13%	2%	-
20	LI Celine	25%	43%	25%	6%	-	-
21	PARK Rachel	3%	18%	40%	32%	7%	-
22	GRAZIANO Josephine	7%	25%	34%	23%	8%	1%	-
23	DEJOY Leilah	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	5%	-
24	RAPTIS Layla	-	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%	-
25	GARCIA Sophia Noelle	-	1%	12%	38%	46%	2%
26	CHENIER Amelia	-	4%	26%	50%	19%	2%
27	ZHU Anna	10%	40%	37%	12%	2%	-
28	REN Ivanka	4%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
29	GUO Cecilia	59%	36%	5%	-	-	-
30	HUANG Jui-An	5%	21%	34%	27%	11%	2%	-
31	SUNG Audrey	-	-	4%	15%	33%	35%	13%
32	TRUONG Chloe	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
33	MUKKU Emily	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-
34	KAYMAN June	2%	13%	30%	34%	17%	4%	-
35	TAN Elliana	16%	36%	32%	13%	3%	-	-
36	OAKES Delaney	16%	50%	30%	4%	-	-
37	WANG Grace	2%	24%	49%	22%	3%	-
38	AGARWAL Keya	5%	27%	42%	21%	4%	-
38	WARBURTON Eleanor	47%	40%	11%	1%	-	-
40	FITCH Anna	18%	42%	31%	8%	1%	-
41	LUCAS Cynthia	4%	23%	41%	26%	5%	-
42	STERNAD Pia	2%	13%	30%	34%	18%	4%	-
43	SIDHU Myra	3%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
44	SMIRNOVA Evangelina	49%	38%	11%	2%	-	-	-
45	HUYNH Evangeline	2%	14%	31%	33%	16%	4%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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