Cozmx Fall RYC/RJCC

Cadet Women's Foil

Sunday, November 23, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Capital Sports Center - McClellan Park, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	THERON Zoe	-	-	-	-	3%	26%	70%
2	FANG Kelervia	-	-	5%	22%	38%	28%	7%
3	LI Chelsea	-	4%	20%	43%	33%
3	KIM Natalie	-	-	4%	17%	36%	33%	10%
5	ZONG Melody	-	-	7%	44%	49%
6	WILLIAMSON Tessa	-	-	1%	7%	24%	41%	27%
7	KIM Lauren	7%	28%	40%	22%	4%
8	ZEE Savannah	-	-	1%	5%	23%	43%	29%
9	MIYOSHI Kylie	2%	14%	36%	37%	12%
10	HSIAO Ariya	-	-	1%	6%	25%	42%	26%
11	MATTUPALLI Ashwika	-	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	5%
12	MA Isabelle	-	1%	14%	54%	31%
13	VOROBIEV Alexandra	-	2%	16%	41%	32%	8%	-
14	JENA Aanvi	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
15	HSU Rachel	-	1%	6%	23%	37%	27%	6%
16	MCLANAHAN Jasmine	16%	40%	32%	10%	1%
17	AHN Hayley	-	4%	22%	40%	27%	6%
18	TEWARI Amaira	-	-	5%	27%	44%	22%	2%
19	JIN Jada Y	-	1%	7%	28%	42%	22%
20	ARYA Leela	-	-	1%	13%	40%	39%	6%
21	TAN Shouyin	-	1%	10%	30%	36%	19%	3%
22	ZHU Yunyao	-	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
23	LAVERY Lucy	-	2%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%
24	THOTA Akira	-	2%	15%	36%	35%	12%
25	LAM Dorris Yandor	9%	42%	41%	8%	-
26	LEE Abigail	-	7%	31%	38%	19%	4%	-
27	LIN Avery	-	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%
28	JOESUF Aurielle	6%	28%	39%	21%	5%	1%	-
29	YANG Byanca	54%	39%	6%	-	-	-	-
30	MANANSALA Zara	7%	30%	38%	20%	5%	1%	-
31	CHOI Sophie	-	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%
32	LI Sophia	21%	42%	29%	8%	1%
33	HUGHES Bailey	1%	13%	33%	35%	16%	3%
34	SARANGAN Ovia	12%	39%	37%	11%	1%	-	-
35	IRELAND Moira	11%	44%	38%	7%	-
36	ARAKELYAN Marina	76%	21%	2%	-	-	-
37	LIM Stella	5%	31%	39%	20%	5%	1%	-
38	FENG Sophia	68%	28%	4%	-	-	-	-
39	GUTIERREZ Gia	43%	41%	14%	2%	-	-	-
40	THERIOT Reagan	15%	42%	34%	8%	1%	-	-
41	BASTUNAS Marissa	53%	38%	8%	-	-
42	GUPTA Pearl	3%	32%	45%	18%	3%	-
43	YUEN Kaitlyn	23%	53%	20%	3%	-	-	-
44	BROWN Favianna	31%	45%	21%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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