Fencing Center of Chicago RYC / RJC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Canlan Sports - Libertyville - Libertyville, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HOROWITZ Shuli	-	-	-	-	1%	15%	84%
2	YANG Olivia	-	-	-	5%	24%	44%	27%
3	RIVERA Leahy	-	-	-	3%	17%	41%	38%
3	DHALIWAL Seerat	-	-	3%	22%	50%	25%
5	SUN Nicole	-	-	4%	20%	44%	32%
6	ZHANG Selina	-	-	4%	20%	43%	32%
7	POEI Meagan	-	1%	7%	28%	42%	20%	1%
8	BELL Blake	1%	8%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%
9	ZOLDAN Nolabelle	-	-	3%	16%	38%	33%	9%
10	PARANJAPE Ojasvi	-	3%	15%	33%	32%	14%	2%
11	SALMI-BYDALEK Ada	-	-	1%	13%	45%	41%
12	KASHUBA Mila	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	14%
13	SHUSTA Lily	-	-	1%	11%	34%	39%	14%
14	ZHANG Priscilla	-	1%	9%	26%	37%	23%	5%
15	LIU Sophia	2%	18%	39%	30%	10%	1%
15	GONZALEZ Lauren	-	7%	32%	43%	16%	2%
17	XU Teresa	-	-	3%	19%	42%	33%	3%
18	KIM Yuna	-	2%	14%	35%	37%	13%
19	CHAVEZ Beatrix	1%	9%	31%	39%	18%	3%	-
20	CHAN Chloe	9%	37%	37%	14%	2%	-
21	SAVIOZ Naomi	2%	15%	34%	34%	13%	2%
22	BADER Mia	2%	20%	43%	28%	6%	-
23	SHAW Isobel	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%
24	JIMÉNEZ PELAY Claudia	1%	16%	41%	32%	9%	1%	-
25	KUMAR Leela	4%	25%	40%	24%	6%	-	-
26	KOSCIK-AQUINO Emily	-	7%	24%	36%	24%	7%	1%
27	REDEMANN Reagan	4%	25%	38%	24%	8%	1%	-
28	LEE Eun-Hae	-	5%	26%	41%	22%	5%	-
29	WANG Sophia	6%	40%	39%	13%	2%	-	-
30	HEWITT Madison	10%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
31	CHO Yuna	22%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-
32	KAGAN Natalie	44%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
33	HUANG Charise	57%	35%	7%	-	-	-
34	MARJAMAA Ada	1%	7%	27%	41%	21%	3%
35	MA Sophie	6%	29%	40%	21%	4%	-	-
36	KU Amanda	58%	34%	7%	1%	-	-	-
37	LIU Doris	12%	46%	34%	8%	1%	-
38	DALY Layla	74%	23%	2%	-	-	-	-
39	DALY Ava	50%	39%	10%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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