Boston Fencing Club RYC

Y-14 Women's Saber

Sunday, December 14, 2025 at 12:00 PM

Boston Fencing Club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KAYA Lara	-	1%	12%	35%	38%	13%
2	FOSS Persephone	-	-	-	5%	31%	63%
3	MULLER Inara	-	-	3%	19%	44%	34%
3	DEMRY Kylee	1%	8%	31%	42%	17%	2%
5	SMITH Genevieve	-	5%	19%	36%	30%	9%
6	GONG Joy	-	-	-	1%	16%	82%
7	ZONG Eliane	-	1%	10%	32%	41%	16%
8	MOTOVA Masha	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
9	MUNSHI Ridhima	-	5%	23%	40%	28%	4%
10	LEE Elise	2%	14%	34%	36%	14%	1%
11	KIM Grace	-	1%	11%	34%	39%	15%
12	JUN Sofia	3%	19%	39%	31%	9%	-
13	ALMEDA Galina	1%	10%	30%	39%	18%	2%
14	MCCARTHY Nora Louisa Abrous	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%	1%
15	RIFKIN Talia	33%	45%	19%	3%	-	-
16	KARAVAS Lucy	10%	37%	37%	14%	2%	-
17	PARK Haylie	-	-	-	7%	35%	58%
18	HILD Anya	-	1%	7%	29%	42%	20%
19	KABILING Anika Von Marie	1%	12%	34%	37%	15%	2%
20	SON Ellie	3%	18%	35%	30%	12%	2%
21	MAGITSKY Giadora	3%	27%	43%	22%	5%	-
22	PORTNOY Elizabeth	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	-
23	MENON Maya	-	1%	9%	33%	45%	12%
24	POTDAR Harper	22%	46%	26%	5%	-	-
25	AN Jasmine	6%	34%	40%	17%	3%	-
26	AN Jamie	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
27	KANG Ellie	42%	42%	14%	2%	-	-
28	YU Sydney	4%	22%	39%	27%	7%	-
29	MADDISON Estelle	19%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-
30	CANARAN Daphne M.	2%	15%	36%	34%	12%	1%
31	PURITZ Morgan	48%	40%	11%	1%	-	-
32	KOSMINA Oleksandra	1%	30%	44%	22%	4%	-
33	KRITZ Sofia	3%	21%	43%	27%	5%	-
34	MADDISON Erica	20%	43%	29%	8%	1%	-
35	SHELDON Adriana	19%	40%	30%	9%	1%	-
36	DREWES Josephine	61%	33%	6%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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