Boston Fencing Club RYC

Y-14 Men's Saber

Sunday, December 14, 2025 at 4:00 PM

Boston Fencing Club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KARAVAS Nicholas	-	-	-	2%	20%	78%
2	KHANNA Adamantis	-	-	-	-	1%	17%	82%
3	ZALETAEV Jacob	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
3	ZHANG Shaoxuan	-	-	1%	12%	43%	44%
5	KOREN George	-	-	1%	10%	42%	47%
6	KOSMIN Ivan	-	-	4%	21%	45%	30%
7	LIN Alex	-	-	5%	27%	48%	20%
8	ORIE Sohan	-	-	4%	23%	50%	23%
9	KOREN David	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
10	MALEK Zak	-	2%	15%	39%	34%	9%
11	RISMAN Edward	2%	16%	36%	34%	12%	1%
12	CHEN Brian	1%	10%	31%	37%	18%	3%
13	CUSSON William	2%	14%	35%	34%	14%	2%
14	CHAVAN Aditya	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	6%
15	MAKLIN David	2%	15%	35%	35%	13%	1%
16	HOWARTH Hayes	1%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%
17	RAMONDINI Levi	-	1%	5%	23%	42%	27%	2%
18	PARK Sean	1%	6%	22%	36%	28%	8%
19	BURENKOV Matthew	-	1%	10%	33%	41%	15%
20	PARK Layne	-	4%	18%	38%	32%	8%
21	JEONG Zion	-	4%	22%	44%	26%	4%
22	VIDREVICH David	-	1%	8%	28%	41%	21%	1%
23	DMYTRUK Alexander	4%	23%	39%	26%	7%	1%	-
24	CARR Silas	8%	32%	38%	18%	4%	-	-
25	GAO Francis	2%	14%	37%	36%	10%	1%
26	DAVIDSON Graham	3%	19%	37%	31%	10%	-
27	HORJUS Daniel	9%	34%	38%	16%	2%	-
28	PALERMO Evan	12%	48%	31%	8%	1%	-
29	SOCHNIKOV Jacob	9%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
30	KATZ Isaac	11%	37%	35%	14%	2%	-
31	WANG William	18%	43%	31%	7%	-	-
32	KNOBEL Benjamin	1%	10%	30%	38%	19%	3%	-
33	THEETHIRA Kevin-Cariappa	12%	38%	38%	12%	1%	-
34	MUSA Roman	3%	18%	37%	32%	11%	1%
35	SEARS Max	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-
35	SOMANI Aarav	27%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-
37	BELL Samuel	10%	35%	38%	15%	2%	-
38	SOBOLEWSKI Isaac	30%	44%	22%	4%	-	-
39	DE NAUROIS Colin	1%	15%	59%	23%	3%	-
40	HALACSY Edomer	40%	41%	16%	3%	-	-
41	LEE Weston	39%	42%	16%	3%	-	-
42	BLACK Bauer	39%	42%	16%	3%	-	-	-
43	GARCIA-ALBEA Oscar	28%	46%	23%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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