Lotus Cup ROC/RJCC/RYC

Cadet Men's Épée

Sunday, December 14, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Myrtle Beach Sports Center - Myrtle Beach, SC, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	AYOTTE James	-	-	-	1%	6%	31%	63%
2	CHANEY Charles	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
3	LEECH Braedan	-	-	1%	12%	44%	42%
3	ROBERTS Phoenix	-	1%	9%	27%	40%	23%
5	KUBBA Sauvil	26%	48%	22%	4%	< 1%	-
6	BROSNAN Solomon	2%	17%	36%	31%	12%	1%
7	KELLY Blair	1%	10%	26%	35%	22%	6%	-
8	ALLEN Davis	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%
9	MIKHAIL Lucas	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
10	STEPANIAN George	2%	18%	44%	29%	6%	-
11	MARISI Gabriel	-	1%	8%	28%	41%	22%
12	FONG Henry	5%	27%	41%	23%	4%
13	MAXWELL Sheito	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%
14	URIA Sullivan	6%	28%	41%	22%	4%
15	WU Jiachen	14%	34%	33%	15%	3%	-
16	SHTEYNBLIK Michael	-	6%	30%	44%	18%	2%
17	SHIM Jae	1%	6%	21%	36%	29%	8%
18	DATSON David	2%	19%	41%	31%	7%
19	MCCABE Kian	-	3%	14%	31%	34%	16%	2%
20	HUR Tyson	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%	-
21	TUDELA Francisco	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
22	GUO Benjamin	-	3%	15%	32%	33%	15%	2%
23	GEURTSEN Henry	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-
24	LANG Hongxu	44%	41%	13%	2%	-
25	CASH William Li	3%	17%	36%	31%	12%	2%
26	SHILOV Maxim	-	< 1%	4%	24%	48%	23%
27	REYNOLDS CHANG Luke	38%	46%	15%	2%	-	-
28	NOBLE Reed	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-
29	XU Perry	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-
30	GINDE Advay	41%	41%	16%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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