Midwest ROC/RJCC

Div I-A Women's Épée

Saturday, December 20, 2025 at 1:30 PM

Canlan Sports Lake Barrington - Barrington, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KUNJAN Lena R.	-	-	1%	8%	41%	51%
2	ZHAO Alina	-	-	-	8%	44%	44%	4%
3	SCHULTZ Gillian	-	-	1%	10%	47%	38%	4%
3	DOBROSAVLJEVIĆ Kalina	-	1%	9%	30%	40%	19%
5	SCHMITT Harper	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	26%
6	STERN Savannah	-	2%	15%	36%	35%	12%
7	DUNLAP-SMITH Azaline I.	-	-	-	-	1%	18%	81%
8	IYER Ishana	-	-	3%	16%	35%	35%	10%
9	BURKHARDT Krista L.	-	4%	17%	35%	31%	12%	1%
10	MARZOUK Hafsa	1%	11%	32%	35%	17%	4%	-
11	BARTOSZUK Camilla	-	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
12	ELTERMAN Kate	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
13	CHIEM Karen	1%	11%	38%	39%	11%	1%
14	TIMMONS Sarah J.	-	-	4%	24%	51%	21%
15	BARANOSKI CHLOE	1%	8%	28%	38%	21%	4%
16	JORGENSEN Kjirsten	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%
17	SWENSON Alexandra	-	6%	25%	39%	25%	6%
18	CULVER Hannah	2%	18%	44%	31%	5%	-	-
19	WIESSLER-HUGHES Linda	2%	14%	40%	35%	9%	1%
20	TELCI Arya	-	8%	27%	37%	22%	6%	-
21	SCHULTZ Michelle M.	-	-	< 1%	3%	17%	42%	38%
22	HIGA Neha	66%	29%	4%	-	-	-	-
23	GULLAPALLI sruthi	15%	47%	31%	7%	-	-	-
24	ONO Melisa	16%	40%	31%	11%	2%	-
25	HART Jenna	34%	48%	17%	2%	-	-
26	MANIANGLUNG Jean	30%	47%	20%	3%	-	-
27	TISDALE Zaria	54%	37%	9%	1%	-	-
28	CHANDLER Elle	3%	22%	38%	27%	9%	1%	-
29	RITTERBUSCH Abigail	1%	15%	42%	36%	6%	-	-
30	JORGENSEN Rebekah	11%	41%	35%	12%	2%	-
31	WANG Emily	30%	43%	22%	5%	-	-
32	CHEEVER Katie	50%	40%	10%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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