Austin Challenge SYC and RCC

Cadet Men's Foil

Sunday, December 21, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Round Rock Sports Center - Round Rock, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	RODRIGUEZ Tyler	-	-	-	1%	8%	36%	55%
2	LATORRE Leonardo	-	-	2%	13%	36%	40%	9%
3	FANG Haoyu	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
3	LIM EUNSEONG	-	-	1%	14%	46%	39%
5	CHEN Anson	-	-	2%	20%	50%	28%
6	CHENG Mason	-	3%	20%	41%	29%	6%
7	PARK Andrew	-	-	-	5%	28%	49%	17%
8	CHEN Owen	-	1%	9%	26%	38%	23%	3%
9	WANG Elijah (QiChen)	-	-	-	1%	8%	39%	53%
10	WEI Winston	-	-	2%	12%	35%	38%	13%
11	MAZAHERI Fletcher	-	-	-	1%	6%	31%	63%
12	TANG Brayden	-	2%	22%	42%	28%	6%
13	LEUNG Tsun Yin (TY)	-	-	4%	24%	45%	27%
14	YUAN Zhihe	-	-	-	4%	22%	44%	30%
15	GUO Austin	-	1%	10%	33%	41%	16%
16	LI Ryan	-	5%	19%	35%	30%	10%	1%
17	TAN Alan	3%	24%	51%	20%	2%	-
18	JIN Xueyuan George	-	-	6%	29%	44%	18%	2%
19	KWONG Colin	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
20	QU Zhida (richard)	-	-	3%	16%	39%	33%	9%
21	WANG Freyr	-	3%	21%	44%	27%	5%	-
22	KUPERBERG Thomas	-	5%	21%	38%	27%	7%	1%
23	POPOKH Luca	1%	7%	25%	36%	24%	6%	-
24	YEE Colin	-	3%	17%	39%	33%	8%
25	PARK Avan	2%	15%	39%	33%	11%	1%
26	JIN Xuechong Daniel	-	2%	18%	49%	28%	4%
27	LI Aaron	-	4%	28%	42%	22%	4%
28	QIAN Henry	1%	8%	27%	39%	21%	5%	-
29	MAO Runxian	7%	29%	37%	21%	5%	1%	-
30	LIN Wilson	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	13%	1%
31	SHU Eric	19%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
32	SUKKALA Avaneesh	13%	64%	21%	2%	-	-
33	DAUTOVIC David	24%	46%	24%	5%	-	-
34	HUDSON Arav	2%	16%	46%	29%	6%	-	-
35	RYU GREYSON	2%	12%	31%	34%	17%	4%	-
36	MAZAHERI Theodore	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
37	ZHIXUAN Gao	34%	46%	17%	3%	-	-
38	HWANG Alexander	27%	52%	20%	2%	-	-
39	DIMINO Kartik	37%	42%	17%	3%	-	-	-
40	FERNANDEZ Rumi	13%	37%	35%	12%	2%	-	-
41	ZHENG GREGORY	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-	-
42	MAK Ryder	27%	51%	19%	2%	-	-	-
43	FAN Joseph-Junen	25%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-	-
44	TSAI Spencer	46%	44%	10%	1%	-	-
44	LINTNER-CALVO Julien	79%	20%	1%	-	-	-
46	SCHAMP Eliot	44%	45%	10%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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