Fairfax Challenge SYC/RJCC

Y-12 Women's Saber

Friday, December 26, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 MENON Maya 100% 100% 100% 95% 73% 30%
2 HU Emily 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 76% 34%
3 LIU Alyssa 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 39% 10%
3 ZHANG Manyao 100% 99% 93% 74% 43% 15% 2%
5 KARAVAS Lucy 100% 99% 91% 70% 37% 11% 1%
6 DESAI Sabrina 100% 100% 97% 83% 51% 18% 2%
7 GUERVILLE Angelique 100% 100% 99% 92% 70% 33% 6%
8 LI Gloria 100% 98% 86% 59% 28% 8% 1%
9 TSIPORUKHA Arie 100% 100% 98% 84% 51% 13%
10 MEYERSTEIN Vivian 100% 95% 72% 34% 8% 1%
11 CHANG Eleanor 100% 99% 89% 59% 22% 3%
12 YAO Elizabeth 100% 98% 85% 56% 24% 6% 1%
13 RADELL Zoe 100% 100% 95% 77% 42% 13% 1%
14 HOWELL Vivienne 100% 100% 99% 91% 69% 34% 8%
15 MAZZURCO Marin 100% 94% 70% 33% 9% 1% -
16 CHANG Grace 100% 94% 72% 39% 14% 3% -
17 NORRIS Phoebe 100% 93% 70% 35% 11% 2% -
18 ARANGO Ivanna 100% 95% 77% 45% 17% 4% -
19 ZHANG Annalyn 100% 100% 99% 92% 70% 36% 8%
20 PETACCHI Lorena 100% 99% 95% 77% 43% 12% -
21 LIN Martina 100% 95% 73% 39% 13% 2% -
22 ATA Emily 100% 89% 54% 18% 3% -
23 GANDHI Maya 100% 100% 99% 91% 67% 32% 7%
24 BORROK Katherine 100% 88% 54% 20% 4% - -
25 SHAIKH Sarah 100% 83% 44% 14% 2% - -
26 MAZZURCO Sydney 100% 74% 31% 7% 1% -
27 SUN claire 100% 89% 58% 25% 6% 1% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.