Foil and Epee D Meet

Div III Mixed Foil

Sunday, December 28, 2025 at 10:00 AM

Seacoast Fencing Club- Rochester - Rochester, NH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BERETICH Brian	-	-	4%	23%	46%	27%
2	PUOPOLO Mia	-	-	2%	13%	37%	37%	12%
3	SFINTESCU Alex	-	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	21%
3	SOLOPOULOS James	-	-	1%	13%	39%	36%	10%
5	MCENTEE Owen	-	1%	7%	30%	43%	20%
6	TOROPOVA Arina	-	4%	19%	36%	30%	11%	1%
7	GRADY James	-	-	-	5%	25%	45%	25%
8	SHAMBARGER Graham	-	2%	17%	45%	29%	7%	1%
9	CHUNG Stella	-	5%	20%	33%	28%	11%	2%
10	WILSON Samuel S.	-	-	1%	9%	31%	42%	18%
10	GOLDENBOGEN Simon	-	-	-	3%	18%	45%	34%
12	HARROLD Sophia	1%	9%	28%	38%	21%	3%
13	CHUN Alexander	2%	22%	48%	24%	4%	-	-
14	WALSH Frederic	1%	8%	29%	39%	20%	4%	-
15	REARDON Patrick M.	-	-	3%	16%	34%	34%	13%
16	REN Ryan	-	-	2%	16%	39%	34%	8%
17	FOCHESATO Eric	1%	17%	42%	31%	9%	1%
18	WALZ Nolan	2%	12%	32%	36%	16%	2%	-
19	IREZ Lyra	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-	-
20	MORSE Evelyn	49%	39%	10%	1%	-	-	-
21	COHEN Maxwell	5%	37%	40%	16%	2%	-
22	KELLEY Zebulon	9%	34%	40%	15%	2%	-	-
23	CASSIE Charles	31%	45%	21%	3%	-	-	-
24	ATTICKS Rachel	19%	41%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
25	DUBIN Elias	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
26	CORNELIUS Daniel	60%	34%	6%	-	-	-
27	LAQUER Tyler	10%	73%	17%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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