NEUSFA Jack Norton Hangover Open

Senior Women's Épée

Thursday, January 1, 2026 at 8:30 AM

Boston Fencing Club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WU Michelle	-	-	-	4%	21%	47%	28%
2	SONG Angela	-	-	-	6%	39%	54%
3	YU Nicole J.	-	-	-	3%	41%	55%
3	SPRINGER Sierra	-	-	-	1%	8%	34%	57%
5	WANG Zoe	-	-	4%	21%	47%	28%
6	CAMPBELL Anahit M.	-	-	-	2%	16%	47%	35%
7	RICHARDSON Meredith	-	-	3%	20%	53%	23%
8	LI Alice	-	3%	15%	33%	34%	14%	2%
9	CHEN Alina	-	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
10	KAIN Isabel J.	-	-	3%	19%	46%	31%
11	TIAN Victoria	8%	33%	41%	17%	1%	-
12	TRAN Helena	-	1%	9%	29%	38%	20%	2%
13	SONKU Mira	17%	41%	33%	9%	1%	-
14	FENG ge	-	-	-	7%	57%	35%
15	MURTALA Aisha	16%	43%	33%	8%	-	-
16	ERSHOVA Anastasia	8%	42%	37%	12%	1%	-
17	LI Fei	-	-	-	2%	12%	39%	48%
18	DUSINLLEUX Kate D.	1%	14%	39%	34%	10%	1%
19	KAUR Manroop	-	2%	11%	31%	37%	17%	2%
20	GIELEGHEM Klaire	-	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%
21	ZOU You yang (Yoyo)	1%	6%	24%	40%	24%	5%	-
22	DRON Lily	-	2%	12%	32%	36%	16%	2%
23	BI Michelle	2%	18%	38%	30%	10%	1%	-
24	XU Mulan	37%	44%	17%	3%	-	-	-
25	BYRON Karen J.	-	2%	11%	33%	39%	14%	2%
26	ORDORICA Abra	15%	39%	34%	11%	1%	-
27	STOCKTON Catherine	19%	42%	30%	8%	1%	-	-
28	DING Iris Siyue	21%	42%	28%	7%	1%	-	-
29	CAFASSO Sabrina	2%	17%	42%	35%	3%	-
30	YU Eva	3%	17%	39%	34%	7%	-
31	BRISK Angelica A.	1%	10%	35%	39%	14%	2%
32	MARASINI Bibhuti	18%	43%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
33	CHEN Allison	67%	29%	4%	-	-	-
34	JENSEN MJ	2%	16%	37%	31%	11%	2%	-
35	JIN Yuehan	-	7%	28%	38%	22%	5%	-
36	ONTIVEROS Sara D.	8%	31%	39%	18%	3%	-	-
37	MAES Heather J.	31%	45%	21%	3%	-	-
38	NGUYEN Celena	14%	38%	35%	12%	1%	-
39	MA Yanlei	70%	26%	4%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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