Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Cadet Men's Saber

Saturday, January 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	FENG Brendan	-	-	-	2%	15%	43%	40%
2	RINALDI Savio	-	-	1%	12%	42%	44%
3	CHANG Ethan	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	23%
3	LIU Jayden	-	1%	8%	29%	39%	20%	3%
5	WASCO Andrew	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	20%
6	LIU Guanyu	1%	9%	31%	41%	18%
7	BROOKS Theo	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
8	PERRIN Leo	-	-	2%	12%	34%	40%	13%
9	TOSCANO Sebastian	-	1%	9%	34%	42%	13%
10	PAUL Jimmy	-	3%	19%	39%	31%	8%
11	BREUER Daniel	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	19%
12	HOWERTON Beckett	19%	44%	29%	7%	1%
13	BUKZIN Alan	1%	8%	30%	42%	19%
14	MOON Noah	-	4%	19%	38%	30%	8%
15	URQUILLA Devin	33%	44%	19%	3%	-
16	YU Ronen	3%	24%	44%	24%	5%	-
17	BROOKS Isaac	-	6%	28%	40%	21%	4%	-
18	HUANG Anthony	17%	45%	29%	8%	1%	-
19	LIAO Sirui	-	5%	24%	42%	25%	4%
20	D'AMELJ Edoardo	1%	13%	37%	37%	12%
21	GOLART Dylan	5%	31%	41%	19%	4%	-
22	LEUNG Arthur	-	6%	28%	40%	22%	5%	-
23	WANG Ziyao	4%	27%	42%	22%	5%	-
24	EVELYN Wyatt	40%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
25	GIPE Caleb	10%	38%	37%	13%	2%	-
26	JAVIER Xavier	1%	13%	35%	35%	14%	2%
27	TEPLESKY Sasha	67%	29%	4%	-	-	-	-
29	GREENE Noah	58%	34%	7%	1%	-	-
30	DE HOSSON Finn	57%	36%	6%	-	-	-
31	TUNA Abdullatif	11%	52%	29%	6%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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