Bloody Winter Wonderland at NKFA

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, January 10, 2026 at 3:30 PM

NKY Fencing Academy (NKFA) - Ludlow, KY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JONES Reilly	-	-	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
2	KALAPASEV Nenad (Ned) (Ned) S.	-	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
3	ECKEL Anson J.	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	9%
3	TRAN John	-	4%	20%	39%	29%	8%	1%
5	BETTS Jr Anthony P.	-	1%	9%	31%	39%	18%	2%
6	MASON Alexander T.	-	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
7	TURNER Joshua	-	-	4%	18%	39%	31%	8%
8	REED Dusty (Allen)	-	-	3%	16%	38%	35%	8%
9	PRIJATEL John R.	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	22%
10	KRIEGER Nathanial	-	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	8%
11	ZIMINSKY Karel M.	-	-	3%	15%	37%	35%	10%
12	KLINE R. Jay	-	6%	26%	39%	23%	5%
13	ELLIS, IV Floyd	3%	27%	42%	23%	5%	-	-
14	EDWARDS Tim	-	1%	8%	26%	38%	22%	4%
15	SEABLOOM Jack	4%	21%	38%	28%	9%	1%	-
16	FULLER II Thomas	1%	10%	30%	36%	18%	4%	-
17	ADAMISIN Brayden	-	3%	20%	39%	29%	7%
18	METZ Evan	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	3%	-
19	KOCSIS Cherry	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-	-
20	STAUBITZ Marc	3%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%	-
21	MUDD Dakota	12%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
22	GUSKA Jenn	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-
23	APANASEWICZ Dan	4%	28%	41%	21%	5%	-	-
24	PICKREL Maxwell	29%	43%	22%	5%	-	-	-
25	PETTIJOHN Luke	27%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
26	MCNARY Ross	13%	49%	30%	7%	1%	-
27	ABUSUNDUS Ahmed	66%	29%	4%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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