Premier Challenge RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Sunday, September 8, 2019 at 3:30 PM

Manalapan, NJ - Manalapan, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TURCK Caspar J.	-	-	1%	9%	28%	41%	21%
2	MCCARTHY Gabriel	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	14%	2%
3	BABAYEV Gabriel A.	-	-	-	5%	39%	56%
3	VARUKATTY-GAFOOR Sohil	-	3%	22%	40%	28%	7%
5	CHTERENTAL Alex	-	-	2%	20%	54%	23%
6	ZENG Noah	-	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
7	LIN Steve	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%	-
8	BONETTI Brayden	-	2%	16%	38%	34%	10%
9	KUSHKOV Daniel	-	-	3%	17%	42%	37%
10	ZHAO Lucas	-	-	5%	21%	42%	31%
11	LEMPERT Adam	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	2%	-
12	PENG Victor	39%	51%	10%	1%	-	-
13	DALAL Rohan	4%	21%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-
14	HUANG Alex F.	-	-	1%	6%	25%	44%	24%
15	BERA Enzo	-	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	24%
16	CLARK Gabriel	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
17	LEE Derek J.	1%	6%	22%	38%	27%	6%
18	ANTHONY Devyn V.	-	-	1%	6%	25%	44%	25%
19	CHENG Cody	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
20	FELDMAN Drew	2%	16%	43%	33%	6%	-
21	IDRISSI Idris	2%	17%	36%	31%	12%	1%
22	WANG Robert	-	5%	22%	38%	27%	6%
23	DUCKETT Myles	-	-	6%	26%	43%	25%
24	DOWNEY Baran	5%	26%	39%	24%	6%	1%
25	WONG Caleb W.	11%	33%	35%	17%	3%	-
26	PEREIRA Beckham	2%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%	-
27	EYBELMAN Ariel	46%	39%	12%	2%	-	-
28	YAO Kevin	29%	49%	19%	2%	-	-
29	SINGER Marcus	37%	46%	15%	2%	-	-
30	WANG Oscar	5%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%	-
31	MARGULIS Jared	32%	42%	21%	5%	-	-	-
31	VORONOVICH Aleksei	44%	40%	14%	2%	-	-	-
33	SUGIURA Samuel	3%	19%	36%	30%	11%	2%	-
34	ANAND Brandon	-	2%	21%	41%	28%	6%
35	CHANG Yuyang	37%	47%	14%	2%	-	-
36	KLETTER Max	1%	10%	39%	41%	9%	-
37	MANGAN Daniel Marsh	11%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
38	HAPP Braeden	13%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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