The Midwinter Melee

Y-12 Mixed Foil

Saturday, January 24, 2026 at 3:00 PM

Candlewood Fencing Center - Newtown, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

• Difficulty
• Upsets
• Pool Heatmap
• Strength

Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

• Victory Chances
• At Least Wins

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

• Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
• The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
• The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
• By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.