AFM Annual RJCC

Cadet Women's Épée

Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 11:30 AM

Sunnyvale, CA - Sunnyvale, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MACHULSKY Leehi	-	-	-	-	2%	25%	73%
2	CHEN Lefu	-	-	-	-	14%	86%
3	ROTHMAN-HALL Bronwyn R.	-	1%	6%	25%	45%	23%
3	BEI Karen	-	-	3%	18%	45%	33%
5	LAN Alice S.	-	-	-	3%	23%	59%	14%
6	ZHANG Chuyi	1%	6%	20%	33%	28%	11%	1%
7	LEANG Priscilla Y.	-	-	4%	19%	42%	35%
8	ZUHARS Renee A.	-	-	-	2%	12%	38%	49%
9	JIANG Corina	-	2%	17%	45%	32%	5%
10	KIM Zoe L.	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	26%
11	GEBALA Natalie Brooke A.	-	-	-	3%	26%	71%
12	GERARDIN Marie	-	-	4%	27%	61%	8%
13	BONDAR Nika	1%	13%	34%	34%	15%	2%
14	LI Charlotte	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
15	PACHECO Naomi	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
16	SINHA Zara	1%	8%	29%	40%	19%	3%	-
17	ZHANG mickey	1%	7%	26%	38%	24%	5%
18	FELAND Alexandra	4%	20%	38%	29%	8%	1%
19	POPOVICI Alina B.	2%	13%	31%	35%	17%	3%
20	HABERMAN Hailey	4%	23%	42%	27%	4%	-
21	DHILLON Ria	1%	8%	34%	42%	15%	1%
22	HSU Adele Y.	13%	33%	33%	16%	4%	-	-
23	WILLIAMS Sarah	1%	6%	20%	33%	29%	11%	1%
24	CHANG Celine A.	2%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%
25	GNANASEKAT Arti	7%	30%	41%	20%	2%	-
26	ZHEREBCHEVSKA Veronika	7%	28%	38%	21%	5%	-
27	DHILLON Amani	2%	16%	39%	32%	10%	1%	-
28	KULASOORIYA Sonia	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	2%	-
29	MUNEYB Muntaha Sana	56%	35%	8%	1%	-	-
30	DUONG Zoey	13%	38%	34%	12%	2%	-	-
31	DU Angela	2%	14%	30%	32%	17%	4%	-
32	LEE Kaitlyn M.	2%	16%	36%	33%	13%	2%
33	CHIRASHNYA Noya	1%	6%	20%	34%	28%	11%	1%
34	SIVAGAR Fiona	1%	7%	24%	37%	26%	6%
35	KULASOORIYA Sofia	3%	17%	36%	32%	11%	1%
36	YIN Grace	22%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-
37	YAO Yilin	11%	32%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
38	DALEY Keira	27%	43%	24%	5%	-	-	-
39	JEFFS Dana	36%	43%	18%	3%	-	-
40	WANG Grace	25%	46%	24%	4%	-	-
41	GUPTA Sanya	30%	42%	22%	6%	1%	-
42	LOUIE Sarah	26%	46%	24%	3%	-	-
43	HAU Olivia	9%	32%	37%	18%	3%	-
44	LIN Ashley	8%	33%	41%	17%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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