SoCal Scholastic League MIDDLE SCHOOL Individual Epee/Saber #2

Middle School Men's Epee

Saturday, February 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM

Chaminade High School - Chatsworth, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MAI Sy	-	-	2%	10%	30%	40%	18%
2	TOUSSAINT Wizard	-	1%	10%	30%	39%	19%	2%
3	WONG Alexander	-	1%	8%	32%	53%	7%
3	ONG David	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	31%	11%
5	YUN Nicholas	1%	7%	22%	35%	27%	8%
6	PARK Sihoon	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%
7	KOU Mason	-	-	4%	18%	42%	36%
8	FEKETE John	65%	30%	4%	-	< 1%	-
9	YUN Mason	3%	15%	32%	33%	15%	3%	-
10	MITCHELL Kallum	-	-	3%	28%	47%	22%
11	MAI Khai	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
12	FERRIERE Theo	-	3%	17%	37%	34%	9%
13	TAN Yichen	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
14	TIAN Dylan	1%	5%	18%	32%	29%	13%	2%
15	RUTSTEIN Isaac	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	9%
16	GONG Rongtao	18%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
17	HAILU Noah	8%	31%	38%	19%	3%	-
18	BIDDLE Alexander	-	1%	11%	34%	39%	15%
19	SANTOS William	-	5%	25%	44%	25%	1%
20	HUANG Eason	1%	6%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
21	MCEWEN Max	26%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
22	ORWITZ Mattis	1%	9%	29%	38%	20%	3%
23	ZANDPOUR Wesley	11%	35%	38%	14%	2%	-
24	MAAS James	5%	23%	38%	27%	8%	1%
25	SAMUELSON Ben	6%	26%	38%	24%	6%	1%	-
26	RANA Hridayrajsinh	-	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
27	CHEN Alexander	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
28	RANA Harshvardhansinh	1%	35%	44%	17%	2%	-
29	MULDER Chasen	20%	42%	29%	8%	1%	-
30	HALL Elvis	-	2%	11%	29%	36%	19%	3%
31	OVERACKER Ryker	1%	13%	39%	37%	10%	1%
32	SCHOELLHAMMER John	19%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
33	ELLIOTT Sage	21%	38%	28%	10%	2%	-
34	BROWN Adam	3%	18%	36%	30%	12%	2%
35	URBAND Ethan	-	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
36	HORN Shane	< 1%	10%	44%	36%	8%	1%
37	HAO TIANQI	< 1%	15%	34%	32%	15%	3%	-
38	LEMME Theo	< 1%	7%	27%	38%	23%	5%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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