2026 RedStar Winter Classic

Senior Mixed Saber

Sunday, February 8, 2026 at 10:30 AM

RedStar Fencing Club - Chicago, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ROHRLACK Charles	-	-	-	-	1%	71%	29%
2	ZIRKLE James	-	-	2%	9%	27%	39%	23%
3	DECESARIS Charles	-	-	-	5%	21%	42%	32%
3	CHAN Troy	7%	30%	40%	19%	4%	-	-
5	LAI Yat Hay Casper	-	-	-	1%	8%	37%	54%
6	WANG William	-	2%	9%	26%	35%	22%	5%
7	HU CHIEH-CHI	-	2%	11%	29%	36%	19%	3%
8	MILLSAPS Elijah	18%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
9	JONES Graham	-	-	3%	17%	42%	32%	6%
10	KOSZYK Agnieszka	-	4%	16%	31%	31%	15%	3%
11	HIBINO Uta	10%	34%	35%	16%	4%	-	-
12	ZHOU Grant	-	1%	9%	31%	42%	17%	-
13	SANABRIA Enrique	-	-	5%	23%	44%	28%	-
14	BROCKMEYER Tyler	1%	12%	33%	38%	14%	2%	-
15	JHAVERI Rajan	-	3%	16%	33%	32%	13%	2%
16	MILLER Douglas	-	< 1%	2%	14%	39%	37%	8%
17	PROLEIKO Julian	6%	26%	36%	23%	8%	1%	-
18	SCHOON Rebecca	4%	22%	41%	26%	7%	1%	-
19	CHENHE YuHan	-	1%	7%	26%	39%	24%	4%
20	EDINBERG Azra	21%	42%	28%	7%	1%	-	-
21	MAMKIN Nathan	14%	36%	34%	13%	2%	-	-
22	WAGNER Elijah	-	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
23	PRAXL Alexa	-	2%	12%	33%	36%	15%	2%
24	MAHESH Advik	18%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-	-
25	SIERRA Gregory	23%	43%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
26	JAGROO Mary	24%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-	-
27	ST. GEORGE David	5%	32%	42%	17%	3%	-	-
28	RAJ Athrv	3%	28%	45%	21%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.