Badger Duals Open

Mixed Saber

Sunday, February 8, 2026 at 2:30 PM

Bakke Recreation & Wellbeing Center - Madison, WI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BANG Hyeongjin	-	-	1%	8%	30%	42%	19%
2	POWELL Troy	-	-	1%	9%	36%	42%	12%
3	TIMMINS Daniel R.	-	-	-	2%	17%	51%	30%
3	GROSSMAN Spencer	-	-	3%	19%	45%	28%	4%
6	DOCTER Sam J.	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
7	ST JEAN Jared	16%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
8	STOFIEL Noah	3%	19%	35%	29%	12%	2%
9	EVERS Kyle	-	6%	24%	39%	26%	5%
10	WALI Kaden	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
11	TANG Andrew	1%	10%	30%	39%	20%	1%
12	HENSEL Kaeleb	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%	-
13	DEGA Tristan	-	3%	21%	47%	25%	3%	-
14	MARTIN William	-	-	1%	8%	39%	53%
15	PATEL Deep	1%	9%	26%	35%	23%	6%
16	BIMBERG Logan	-	3%	17%	39%	34%	6%	-
17	WARREN Lydia	4%	18%	34%	30%	13%	2%
18	LUO Ruizhe	17%	44%	30%	8%	1%	-
19	SHUKLA Anusha	10%	31%	36%	18%	4%	-
20	PAPP Mike	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	-
21	WILLIAMS Henry	2%	11%	29%	35%	20%	4%
22	WILLIAMS Anjali	6%	27%	38%	22%	6%	1%
23	SAHR Kevin	-	-	4%	14%	31%	35%	16%
24	KAO Tzu-Ting	3%	24%	39%	25%	7%	1%	-
25	KAM Emily	23%	42%	26%	8%	1%	-	-
26	MOHR Bruce	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-	-
27	NILSEN Severin	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%
28	MICELI Gabby	4%	27%	41%	23%	5%	-
29	JOHNSON brendan	-	6%	25%	40%	24%	5%
30	PENCE Samuel	3%	26%	53%	16%	1%	-	-
31	ROSCOE Aedhan	14%	41%	33%	11%	1%	-
32	ZIMMER Makenzie	9%	29%	35%	20%	5%	1%	-
33	PEREZ Tomas	< 1%	7%	36%	42%	13%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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