February NAC

Vet-40 Men's Foil

Thursday, February 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM

Duke Energy Convention Center - Cincinnati, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JAN Stephen	-	-	-	1%	9%	36%	54%
2	PAI Dong-Ying	-	-	1%	15%	55%	29%
3	GROSS Liran	-	-	-	< 1%	11%	88%
5	KOSLA Anthony M.	-	-	5%	22%	43%	30%
6	TSINIS Alexander E.	-	6%	32%	44%	18%
7	HENNIG Thomas A.	-	-	3%	22%	50%	25%
8	GREEN Michael C.	-	2%	17%	49%	31%	2%
9	FLANAGAN James	-	11%	41%	36%	11%	1%
10	SPROWLES Cameron D.	-	3%	25%	47%	25%
11	MILLER Douglas S.	-	1%	11%	44%	42%	2%
12	WILLIAMS Kenneth H.	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	1%
13	SHEYNKMAN Leon	-	3%	13%	31%	35%	17%	2%
14	CROWDER Andrew E.	5%	30%	47%	17%	2%	-
15	PASHBY Stephen N.	-	6%	31%	46%	16%	1%
16	GARDNER William	16%	37%	32%	13%	3%	-	-
17	JUNCO Carlos	-	2%	15%	39%	36%	8%
18	WOOD Alexander W.	-	5%	31%	45%	19%
19	HOLCOMB Michael	83%	16%	1%	-	-	-
20	LEWIS-RAMIREZ Ben	-	3%	18%	37%	33%	10%
21	CARRINO David	15%	36%	32%	13%	3%	-	-
22	KUZMAK Michael J.	-	3%	14%	32%	34%	15%	2%
23	BUCHNER William	4%	20%	36%	28%	10%	2%	-
24	RODRIGUEZ VINCENT	35%	47%	17%	2%	-	-
25	BROWN Jason	5%	37%	39%	15%	2%	-
26	BERBERI Matt	1%	21%	44%	28%	6%	-
27	TOMASI John	24%	54%	19%	3%	-
28	BHATT Jay	3%	35%	42%	17%	2%	-
29	REARDON Patrick M.	53%	40%	7%	-	-
30	CLIPPARD Erik J.	28%	49%	21%	3%	-	-
31	SUCHOSKI Annika	78%	21%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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