SAS Saber #3 (Y10, Y12, Y14, Junior, Senior)

Senior Mixed Saber

Saturday, February 21, 2026 at 3:00 PM

Salle Auriol Seattle - Seattle, WA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PIISPANEN Eric A.	-	-	-	-	-	7%	93%
2	KALISOVA Kristyna	-	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	27%
3	YANG Caroline	1%	11%	31%	35%	18%	4%	-
3	WANG Tina	-	-	1%	8%	25%	41%	26%
5	MOULTON Andrew	-	2%	15%	36%	35%	12%	-
6	VALENTINE Rhys	1%	44%	40%	13%	2%	-
7	LOPER Alex	-	1%	11%	40%	46%	3%
8	RIGGINS Littleton K.	-	-	-	5%	24%	45%	25%
9	VACCA Giovanni	-	3%	18%	37%	31%	10%	1%
10	RICH Augustus (Gus) G.	-	-	-	2%	21%	77%
11	MOODY Paul J.	-	3%	19%	40%	31%	7%
12	SIT Jayden Ka-Hin	3%	21%	42%	29%	5%	-
13	RAMAN Indira	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
14	RASHELL Simon	-	1%	6%	27%	43%	23%	1%
15	MITCHELL-LU Hiro	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	8%	1%
16	HOLMES Xavier	-	1%	11%	31%	38%	18%	2%
17	LARA Alfred	-	-	-	4%	21%	45%	29%
18	NEARMAN Christopher	-	4%	19%	38%	29%	9%	1%
19	CARLUCCI Laura A.	-	-	7%	27%	43%	23%
20	ASHTIANI Shaya	-	3%	16%	37%	34%	10%
21	MA Yanjie	-	1%	7%	22%	36%	27%	7%
22	SAKPAL Raghavi	-	1%	7%	26%	37%	24%	5%
23	XU David	-	3%	17%	33%	31%	14%	2%
24	KING Robin E.	1%	8%	32%	41%	17%	2%
25	BECK Mica	1%	14%	38%	33%	11%	1%	-
26	BARCZAY Sara E.	4%	27%	39%	23%	6%	1%	-
27	DAVISSON Zack	11%	34%	35%	16%	4%	-	-
28	TING Alexander	26%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
29	MUSSER Westin	42%	42%	14%	2%	-	-
30	HE Manni	3%	17%	37%	31%	11%	1%	-
31	JI Xinya	-	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
32	HO Ethan	9%	42%	36%	12%	2%	-	-
33	SIVORAPHONH Ryan H.	-	2%	14%	36%	36%	12%	-
34	WILCOX Kellen	13%	45%	33%	8%	1%	-	-
35	MEDANICH Frederick	-	7%	31%	39%	19%	3%
36	WONG Lucia	50%	38%	10%	1%	-	-	-
37	WONG Alice	67%	29%	4%	-	-	-	-
38	WALCH Ryan	46%	41%	12%	1%	-	-	-
39	DEGEN Anita L.	16%	46%	30%	7%	1%	-
40	GUEA Mark	85%	15%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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