Nashville Challenge RYC/RJCC

Cadet Men's Épée

Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 8:00 AM

MTSU Campus Recreation - Murfreesboro, TN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KIM Leejay	-	3%	13%	28%	33%	19%	5%
2	NAM Nathaniel	-	4%	17%	31%	30%	15%	3%
3	REYNOLDS Blake	1%	6%	22%	34%	26%	10%	1%
3	KIM Doyun	-	-	2%	12%	35%	41%	9%
5	TANG Daniel	-	1%	4%	16%	32%	33%	14%
6	KROPP Wesley	-	-	3%	18%	43%	35%
7	SHIM Jae	-	2%	11%	32%	40%	15%
8	RICHMOND Ozan	-	2%	9%	25%	34%	23%	6%
9	MCCABE Kian	-	2%	10%	25%	34%	23%	6%
10	CHA Patrick	-	-	-	-	6%	33%	61%
11	DAS Kushal	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
12	SCORDINSKY Liam	-	4%	15%	30%	31%	16%	3%
13	MILLER Balthazar	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
14	LANG Hongxu	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%	-
15	HUR Tyson	10%	29%	34%	20%	6%	1%	-
16	QUEENER, IV Henry	2%	14%	30%	31%	17%	5%	1%
17	KOSASI Adrian	10%	30%	34%	19%	5%	1%	-
18	KARLEKAR Veer	-	3%	12%	28%	33%	19%	4%
19	BATISTA Julian	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
20	WU Jiachen	4%	19%	33%	28%	12%	3%	-
21	BOHLER-PARK Henry	5%	23%	38%	27%	7%	1%
22	JONES Gideon	1%	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%	-
23	DIEKER Edwin	1%	8%	24%	33%	24%	9%	1%
24	OH Brandon	3%	17%	36%	31%	11%	2%	-
25	JOO Daniel HyunJoon	22%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
26	REYNOLDS CHANG Luke	21%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
27	GRAB Liam	37%	40%	18%	4%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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