Nashville Challenge RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Men's Foil

Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 1:00 PM

MTSU Campus Recreation - Murfreesboro, TN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIM EUNSEONG	-	-	-	1%	17%	82%
2	DANTON Ryan	-	-	-	1%	10%	38%	51%
3	RAMESH Prashvin	-	-	2%	15%	42%	40%
3	DECASTRO Evan	-	-	3%	19%	45%	33%
5	HOFFMAN Zane	-	5%	28%	42%	22%	3%
6	JORGE Elijah	-	3%	16%	42%	40%
7	BRITTINGHAM Henry	2%	15%	36%	34%	12%	1%
8	SUN Ethan	-	5%	27%	41%	23%	4%
9	ROBERTSON Liam	-	2%	15%	39%	35%	9%
10	CHOE Austin	4%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%	-
11	PATEL Aarav	1%	6%	20%	33%	28%	11%	1%
13	HOARE Gabriel	5%	30%	45%	19%	2%	-
14	HU Anthony	1%	10%	32%	37%	17%	2%
15	COLEMAN Hirsch	22%	51%	23%	4%	-	-
16	HAN Edison	11%	40%	37%	11%	1%	-
17	SCHWARTZ David	3%	17%	38%	34%	9%
18	LIANG Andrew	7%	29%	40%	21%	3%
19	ALANAZI Saif	-	6%	27%	45%	21%	1%
20	BROWN Jackson	9%	28%	35%	21%	7%	1%	-
21	NEMI Vin	-	1%	12%	40%	43%	4%
23	FORD Lennox	12%	39%	35%	13%	2%	-
24	JI SEAN	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
25	JOHNSON Trey	50%	40%	10%	1%	-	-
26	MORRISON Archer	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%
27	KIM Ryan	7%	27%	37%	22%	5%	-	-
28	LINDLEY Patrick	-	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%
29	REED Samuel	-	5%	23%	38%	26%	7%	-
30	BEATY Robert	40%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
31	CHAVALI Arjun	28%	43%	24%	5%	-
31	BATTIWALLA Rohan	55%	39%	6%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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