9th Annual Sword in the Stone RYC & RJCC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Friday, February 27, 2026 at 2:00 PM

Happy Stages - North Hollywood, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KENSICKI Phoebe	-	-	1%	11%	38%	50%
2	DAI Iris Yuyang	-	-	5%	22%	44%	29%
3	HOROWITZ Shuli	-	-	-	-	1%	17%	82%
3	CHANG Olivia	-	-	1%	16%	51%	31%
5	ZHOU Joi	-	-	-	-	4%	26%	70%
6	QIAO Lori-Ann	1%	5%	19%	34%	30%	11%	1%
7	KIM Natalie	-	-	1%	12%	46%	40%
8	CHEN Summer	-	4%	26%	41%	24%	5%
9	GOWDA Siyona	-	-	3%	17%	42%	36%	3%
10	LIM Kensie	-	-	8%	30%	42%	19%
11	ZHANG Queeny	-	3%	20%	41%	30%	7%
12	CHEN Madeleine	-	7%	26%	39%	23%	5%
13	TEWARI Amaira	1%	9%	29%	38%	20%	3%
14	PAWAR Sanvi	-	2%	14%	38%	35%	10%	-
15	SAIFEE Zahra	-	9%	36%	38%	15%	2%
16	RUI Jessie	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
17	DENG Claire	-	1%	8%	30%	42%	20%
18	SHEN Gloria	-	1%	13%	36%	38%	12%
19	BHANGOO Paloma	1%	11%	35%	38%	14%	1%
20	WANG Doreen	-	-	5%	22%	43%	30%
21	IRELAND Moira	2%	13%	30%	33%	17%	4%	-
22	ZHANG Hannah	-	3%	15%	36%	35%	11%
23	BANDZELADZE Emma	-	4%	24%	50%	20%	2%
24	NICOLETTI Thea	1%	17%	40%	32%	9%	1%
25	SAIFEE Sakina	-	3%	24%	41%	26%	6%
26	CHOI Jian	-	3%	15%	32%	33%	14%	1%
27	KIM Rylie	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%	-
28	RENGANATHAN Krithiga	4%	27%	47%	20%	2%	-
29	DESAI Zoya	-	2%	14%	38%	38%	8%
30	TU Averie	6%	29%	39%	21%	5%	-
31	OLSHANSKY Dalia	1%	10%	30%	38%	19%	3%
32	SANTIAGO Rania	9%	30%	35%	20%	5%	1%	-
33	YUEN Kaitlyn	7%	32%	39%	18%	4%	-
34	TANG Clementine	2%	21%	49%	25%	3%	-	-
35	LAVERY Lucy	1%	13%	33%	35%	15%	2%
36	SOUSA Lauren	73%	24%	3%	-	-	-
37	SHIN Ellie	42%	43%	13%	2%	-	-	-
38	BASTUNAS Marissa	12%	57%	26%	5%	-	-
39	DEJOY Leilah	3%	29%	42%	22%	4%	-
40	WANG Ellen	6%	47%	36%	10%	1%	-
41	ARCE BASURCO Juliana	46%	39%	12%	2%	-	-
42	OH Amber	52%	37%	9%	1%	-	-
43	YOU Mina	34%	47%	17%	2%	-	-
44	CHOI Mackenzie	22%	52%	23%	3%	-	-	-
45	LING Camryn	2%	17%	37%	31%	11%	1%
46	YUEN Hannah	75%	24%	2%	-	-	-
47	HUANG Veronica	16%	36%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
48	PARK Aileen	30%	49%	19%	2%	-	-
49	DOMANTAY Sophia	80%	19%	1%	-	-	-
50	PERKINS Aaliya	< 1%	-	5%	34%	45%	16%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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