GRAFA RYC\RJCC\ROC- Third Coast Cup

Junior Men's Foil

Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 8:00 AM

MSA Sports Spot - Grand Rapids, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TOEWS Jackson	-	-	4%	22%	48%	26%
2	PALMA Nathan Anthony	-	-	-	2%	16%	42%	40%
3	SHEVCHENKO Kostiantyn	-	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
3	HOWLAND Jonas	-	-	-	1%	14%	85%
5	CHUANG Oscar	-	-	-	-	4%	29%	66%
6	WILEY Conor	-	2%	14%	41%	32%	10%	1%
7	FAN Sean	-	6%	27%	43%	23%	1%
8	VANOYEN Dominick	-	-	2%	16%	45%	37%
9	KUE Temujin	-	-	1%	7%	28%	46%	19%
10	CLARK Benjamin	-	-	1%	11%	35%	39%	14%
11	ZMUDA Aiden	-	2%	15%	35%	34%	13%	2%
12	DIEPSTRA Jeremy	-	-	2%	14%	40%	38%	6%
13	LEE Ian	-	-	1%	12%	37%	38%	12%
14	EDWARDS Maxon	-	-	-	5%	25%	44%	26%
16	TIAN Nicolas	1%	11%	29%	36%	19%	4%	-
17	MAVANI Krishna	-	1%	8%	26%	39%	23%	4%
18	FANG Haoyu	-	-	-	2%	12%	42%	44%
19	COOK Grant	3%	17%	38%	32%	9%	1%
20	RUBY Asher	-	1%	7%	26%	39%	23%	4%
21	LATORRE Leonardo	-	-	5%	22%	38%	28%	6%
22	ZINSER Jamie	-	-	4%	22%	44%	27%	3%
23	EDWARDS Connor	-	1%	7%	24%	39%	25%	4%
24	HERRERA Xavier	1%	7%	24%	37%	24%	6%	-
25	WENGER Liam	1%	7%	29%	41%	19%	3%	-
26	DAVIS Benjamin	1%	7%	24%	37%	24%	6%	-
27	WANG Freyr	1%	10%	35%	39%	14%	1%
28	TAGORE Reyansh	2%	19%	40%	29%	9%	1%	-
29	KAGAN Noah	1%	8%	31%	41%	18%	1%
30	WENGER Rowan	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%	-
31	GOGOI Kavi	2%	19%	42%	29%	7%	1%	-
32	CHASE Crosby	21%	46%	27%	6%	1%	-
33	MCCONKEY Tristan	11%	35%	37%	15%	2%	-
34	FLYNN Oliver	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-	-
35	VOGEL Rylan	51%	39%	9%	1%	-	-	-
36	LI Andy	7%	28%	40%	22%	4%	-
37	THEKKEL Jonathan	30%	46%	21%	3%	-	-	-
38	DEPP Edward	4%	33%	41%	18%	3%	-	-
39	GLUCK Trenton	12%	36%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
40	XU Rambert	11%	38%	39%	11%	1%	-	-
41	MCGRATH Milo	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
42	CRONK Trevor	20%	45%	29%	6%	-	-	-
43	CHAN William	14%	43%	33%	10%	1%	-	-
44	FEEHAN Conor	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-
45	NI Aaric	28%	43%	23%	5%	-	-
46	KOLACKI Gabriel	31%	43%	21%	5%	-	-	-
47	TERPSTRA Clive	75%	23%	2%	-	-	-	-
48	DENG Albert	38%	44%	15%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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