Miles Chamley-Watson Cup RYC/RJCC/ROC

Y-10 Men's Foil

Friday, March 20, 2026 at 12:30 PM

Atlantic City Convention Center - Hall D - Atlantic City, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	HUANG Dalynn	-	-	1%	9%	44%	47%
2	CAO Aaron	-	-	-	1%	13%	87%
3	MOON Nolan	-	5%	22%	42%	28%	3%
3	YOON Mason	-	-	4%	20%	44%	33%
5	WU Yulen	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	19%
6	XIA Wenhao	-	3%	17%	40%	32%	8%
7	ZHANG Jason	3%	20%	40%	30%	7%	-
8	JAZWINSKI Archer	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%
9	HO Marcus	3%	18%	36%	31%	10%	1%
10	LIN Alexander	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
11	LU Jason	-	5%	24%	43%	26%	2%
12	WANG Leon	-	2%	12%	36%	38%	12%
13	SHA Adam	-	1%	8%	31%	42%	18%
14	YAMADA Ray	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
15	SANTHOSH Riaan	-	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
16	CHIU WU Edward	5%	27%	41%	22%	4%	-
17	FAN Oscar	1%	8%	29%	42%	20%	1%
18	CHEN Jonathan	16%	42%	33%	9%	1%	-
19	HWANG Samuel	6%	31%	40%	19%	3%	-
20	HUANG Howard	3%	20%	40%	30%	7%	-
21	CAI Charlie	7%	29%	38%	21%	4%	-
22	JIANG Alexander	5%	28%	41%	21%	5%	-
23	MOTYKIEWICZ Jan	31%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-
24	MARTIN-WARREN Ruben Carlos	-	< 1%	5%	24%	48%	23%
25	YAMADA Kai	13%	39%	35%	12%	2%	-
26	CHEN Aidan	39%	44%	15%	2%	-	-
27	BOSYKH Igor	30%	44%	22%	4%	-	-
27	LI Ryan	2%	12%	31%	35%	18%	3%
29	STANSBURY Malcolm	47%	40%	12%	1%	-	-
30	LEE Matthias	< 1%	7%	27%	38%	23%	5%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.