Paul Pesthy Memorial RYC/RJCC

Junior Men's Épée

Saturday, March 28, 2026 at 1:00 PM

Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center, Hall 4A - San Antonio, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SEEFELDT William Henry C.	-	-	-	-	5%	29%	66%
2	PARKS-GOOD Tyler	1%	10%	30%	38%	18%	3%
3	GONZALEZ Kian	-	1%	11%	33%	41%	14%
3	DADE MAXIMUS	-	4%	17%	36%	33%	10%
5	CORTRIGHT Caedmon	-	-	2%	15%	43%	40%
6	QIAN Irvine	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	20%
7	SATHYAN Dev	1%	7%	26%	37%	23%	6%	-
8	KOSTUSIAK Evan	8%	32%	38%	18%	3%	-
9	YILMAZ Tarik	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
10	LIU Austin	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%
11	SOOS Whitman	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
12	HERNDON Liam	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
13	PATEL Avi S.	9%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
14	LI Tristan	-	2%	13%	33%	36%	15%
15	MANU Aadhav	45%	41%	12%	2%	-	-	-
16	SEYMOUR Phoenix	13%	42%	33%	11%	2%	-	-
17	MANGAN Hunter	-	1%	6%	24%	40%	26%	4%
18	FREEMAN Jake Matthew	5%	24%	37%	26%	8%	1%
19	LESCURE Dimitri	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
20	MICU Constantin	3%	19%	36%	29%	11%	1%
21	VEERAVALLI Vivek	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
22	POHL Philip	-	2%	14%	34%	35%	14%	1%
23	CHEN Linus	29%	43%	23%	5%	-	-
24	SUYAMA Ryuki	35%	44%	17%	3%	-	-
25	GOODMAN Benjamin	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
26	OBREBSKI Kevin	1%	10%	32%	37%	18%	3%
26	TUMULA Arihaan	9%	33%	38%	17%	3%	-
28	ABAD Mateo	19%	44%	28%	8%	1%	-
29	ULRICH Jacob	29%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
30	HASSOUN Pierre-Olivier	1%	7%	28%	38%	22%	5%	-
31	VEERAVALLI Pranav	34%	42%	19%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.