Midwest RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Saturday, April 4, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Canlan Sports Lake Barrington - BARRINGTON, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JIAO Daniel	-	-	3%	18%	44%	35%
2	WANG Jaaziel	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	24%
3	ZHENG Lerui	-	-	-	1%	10%	37%	52%
3	MCCOOL Henry	-	-	-	1%	11%	39%	48%
5	SU Aiden	-	1%	9%	32%	43%	14%	1%
6	XU Jason	-	-	3%	13%	32%	37%	16%
7	PARK Nathan	-	2%	12%	31%	36%	17%	2%
8	KALINA Levi	-	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
9	MORALES Tycho	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	20%
10	CORAN Roland	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	21%
11	HUANG Lucas	-	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	13%
12	MATIYASH Andrew	10%	31%	36%	18%	4%	-
13	CHEN Kyler	-	1%	9%	31%	42%	16%
14	DHALIWAL Zorawar Singh	-	1%	12%	33%	38%	15%
15	WILLIAMS Thomas	-	5%	22%	41%	26%	5%
16	CHEN Kyle	1%	7%	29%	39%	21%	4%
17	PALMERKLEIN Justin	-	-	4%	18%	37%	33%	8%
18	MADDES Gage	-	2%	10%	30%	39%	19%
19	YU Oliver	-	2%	10%	27%	35%	21%	5%
20	CHEN Evan	1%	11%	32%	37%	17%	3%
21	GULLAPALLI Shrihaan	1%	5%	21%	36%	29%	8%
22	JAIN Kavya	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
23	MANUSZAK August	-	1%	8%	27%	39%	23%	3%
24	LIM Cayden	3%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%	-
25	MARVEL Elliot	2%	12%	31%	34%	17%	4%	-
26	SHUKLA Arjoon	-	6%	25%	39%	25%	5%
27	AN Jacob	3%	17%	37%	31%	10%	1%
28	STEPHAN Tyler	16%	40%	33%	10%	1%	-
29	NETESA Lukian	26%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
30	REES Vaughan	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%
31	LI Arthur	23%	46%	25%	6%	1%	-
32	LI Jensen	8%	29%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
33	SHAH Aadi	10%	31%	36%	19%	5%	-
34	VALERI Ryan	20%	40%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
35	MACK Leo	44%	40%	14%	2%	-	-	-
36	KLINE Benjamin	2%	15%	36%	33%	12%	2%	-
37	ZHANG Devon	17%	41%	32%	9%	1%	-
38	CHOPEY Oliver	9%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-
39	AN Graham	5%	29%	39%	22%	5%	-	-
40	LIU Charles	1%	9%	26%	35%	22%	6%	1%
41	LINEBERRY KAI	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-	-
42	NIEMEIJER Nolan	44%	41%	13%	2%	-	-
42	ZHAI Noah	39%	45%	14%	2%	-	-
44	DEBOTH Landon	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
44	LAUX Carter	15%	39%	34%	11%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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