Bull City Y8 RYC/RJCC Tournament

Y-12 Men's Saber

Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 3:45 PM

Pro 3:5 Sports Academy - Raleigh, NC, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MIKHAILOV Andrei	-	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
2	GHIM Ethan	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	15%
3	MCCABE Donovan	-	5%	19%	36%	30%	9%
3	GILBERT Ari	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	56%
5	GUO Joe	-	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%
6	RIMMELE Sven Yan	-	2%	13%	33%	36%	15%
7	HARDY Mason	-	2%	14%	32%	34%	15%	2%
8	ZHAO Alan	1%	8%	26%	36%	23%	6%
9	BAIER Leon	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	3%
10	LIANG Henry	1%	8%	24%	35%	24%	7%	1%
11	GOLDSTEIN Malcolm	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	6%
12	LEVY Rafa	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	15%
13	BECKER Grayson	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	26%
14	RINALDI Benigno	-	-	3%	14%	34%	37%	13%
15	ARRANT Jordan	-	9%	30%	37%	20%	5%	-
16	KIM Christopher	1%	12%	32%	35%	17%	3%
17	KIM Ewan	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	6%
18	CHEN Remsen	1%	7%	23%	35%	26%	8%	1%
19	SHARMA KRISH	-	2%	9%	26%	37%	22%	3%
20	YEAZEL Reid	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-
21	ZHAO Evan	5%	25%	38%	24%	7%	1%
22	RAHMAN Noah	1%	11%	29%	35%	20%	4%
23	SAFAI Bardia	15%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-
23	ZHU Jackie	31%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-
25	GU Viljo Weihan	3%	28%	40%	23%	6%	1%	-
26	XIE Jeffery	19%	38%	29%	11%	2%	-	-
27	PRENDINGUE Michael	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
28	ZHANG Luyang	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-
28	WOLFF Charles	10%	33%	36%	17%	4%	-
30	YE Matthew	32%	42%	20%	4%	-	-
31	BROWN Archie	4%	20%	36%	28%	10%	1%	-
32	SINGH Yohan	78%	20%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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