7th Annual Precision Invitational RYC and RJCC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Friday, April 10, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LEE Lucas	-	-	-	1%	9%	39%	51%
2	WU Nathan	-	-	-	3%	25%	72%
3	JU Shang	-	2%	11%	32%	40%	15%
3	YI Alexander	-	-	3%	18%	43%	35%
5	LIN Logan	-	-	-	2%	14%	43%	41%
6	CHU Clayton	2%	13%	31%	35%	17%	3%
7	MOSLEY Wally	-	-	-	-	5%	29%	66%
8	LI Stephen	-	-	1%	10%	35%	42%	11%
9	YOON Ian	-	2%	10%	27%	37%	22%	3%
10	YOO Lucas	-	-	-	2%	11%	37%	50%
11	SHIH Derek	-	-	1%	8%	28%	45%	19%
12	KIM Hayden	-	4%	19%	40%	33%	4%
13	LIU Aiden	4%	22%	41%	28%	5%	-
14	LO Stefan	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
15	TENG Eric	8%	30%	37%	20%	5%	-
16	KOU Logan	8%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%	-
17	XUE Jason	-	4%	16%	32%	32%	14%	2%
18	YUN Mason	-	-	4%	22%	43%	26%	4%
19	WANG Alexander	1%	9%	26%	34%	22%	6%	1%
20	HONG Eason	2%	15%	35%	33%	12%	1%
21	FONG Ethan	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
22	JI Dylan	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%	-
23	YANG Mikey	3%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%	-
24	WANG Andy	-	-	2%	17%	48%	34%
25	PARK Sean	1%	8%	25%	35%	23%	6%	-
26	SI Alexander	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%	-
27	DAI Greyson	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-
28	ERLIKHMAN Emanuel	3%	19%	37%	31%	9%	1%
29	LEE Daniel	3%	19%	37%	30%	9%	1%
30	LEE Paxton	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%	-
31	YIM Benjamin	1%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	-
32	ZHAO Jonathan Li	23%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-	-
33	WANG Franklin	1%	7%	27%	41%	20%	4%	-
34	LI nathan zeting	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-
35	DEMIRCHIAN Edward	12%	36%	35%	15%	2%	-
36	LEE Connor	9%	31%	38%	19%	3%	-
37	SCHOELLHAMMER John	13%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-	-
38	LU Mark	18%	43%	30%	8%	1%	-	-
39	HAO hardy	34%	43%	19%	4%	-	-
40	TU Austin	32%	44%	20%	4%	-	-	-
41	ANDERSON Bergen	1%	9%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%
42	KIM Ian	18%	38%	30%	12%	2%	-	-
44	WAN William	7%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%	-
45	JIN JETFAN	< 1%	2%	12%	37%	44%	6%
46	YANG Rony	5%	27%	43%	22%	4%	-	-
47	LU Jayden	29%	43%	22%	5%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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