7th Annual Precision Invitational RYC and RJCC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Saturday, April 11, 2026 at 4:00 PM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEN Aaron	-	-	3%	13%	34%	37%	13%
2	MOROAICA Seiku	-	-	-	2%	12%	40%	46%
3	DESAI Arthav	-	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
3	HSIEH Sebastian	1%	6%	22%	36%	26%	8%	1%
5	FU BRANDEN	-	-	-	3%	16%	40%	41%
6	PARK Jayden	-	1%	7%	22%	36%	27%	7%
7	QI Zach	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	7%
8	WU Allen	1%	5%	20%	34%	28%	10%	1%
9	TABANCAY Cole	-	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	9%
10	RAZAI Evan	-	-	1%	6%	23%	43%	28%
11	LVOVSKIY Roman	-	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	21%
12	LI Sky	-	3%	15%	31%	33%	15%	2%
13	DENG Richard	-	1%	9%	26%	37%	22%	4%
14	LI Jason	-	3%	13%	30%	34%	18%	3%
15	LEI Isaac	-	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%
16	HSIEH Maxwell	1%	8%	25%	35%	23%	7%	1%
17	WANG James	-	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
18	JIANG Steven	-	1%	4%	17%	34%	32%	11%
19	GALANG Aiden	-	-	5%	19%	38%	31%	7%
20	CHOI LIAM	-	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	14%
21	CHEN Donovan	-	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
22	JI Derek	-	2%	12%	30%	36%	18%	2%
23	CONCANNON Jackson	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%	-
24	YANG Collin	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
25	XIN Ryan	19%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
26	LI Nathan	3%	17%	34%	30%	12%	2%	-
27	DAUM Billy	17%	40%	31%	11%	2%	-	-
28	RAMOS Pious	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%	-
29	LAM Dylan	21%	43%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
30	LIU Jayden	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
31	YUEN Aulden	18%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
32	KHUU HALL Gibson	19%	40%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
33	XIAO Jing	-	2%	17%	35%	32%	13%	2%
34	CHANG Allen	6%	35%	39%	17%	3%	-	-
35	BERKI wyatt	3%	17%	33%	30%	14%	3%	-
36	NGUYEN Tristan	56%	35%	8%	1%	-	-	-
37	QIAO Jason	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	5%	-
38	LOVELL Jackson	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
39	CHOI Noah	< 1%	17%	42%	31%	9%	1%	-
39	BROWN Eli	12%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
41	YAN Kaysen	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	-	-
42	NG Jaden	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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