Integrity RJCC CUP

Junior Men's Saber

Saturday, August 24, 2019 at 3:00 PM

MAPLEWOOD, NJ - MAPLEWOOD, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YEN Darren	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	34%
2	SO Hananiah	-	-	4%	18%	36%	33%	9%
3	GILES Jeremy M.	-	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%
3	MORREALE John	-	2%	11%	29%	38%	20%
5	WOOD Elden S.	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	23%
6	HARRIS Alex K.	-	3%	14%	32%	34%	15%	2%
7	KIM Minwook	-	-	2%	11%	29%	38%	20%
8	LIU Kelly	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%
9	QUAN Nicholas	-	4%	18%	33%	30%	13%	2%
10	NG Jonathan H.	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%
11	BARTOLO Domenic V.	2%	15%	32%	33%	16%	3%
12	SHI Andrew	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
13	TANG Albert	7%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%
14	LEVIN Mark A.	-	5%	17%	32%	30%	14%	2%
15	MOSKOWITZ Mason C.	-	1%	7%	25%	40%	22%	4%
16	YEN Preston	2%	15%	32%	33%	15%	3%
17	TRAVAGLIONE Conor D.	-	-	1%	6%	24%	44%	25%
18	MOSZCZYNSKI Adam	-	2%	12%	28%	34%	19%	4%
19	CHAN Daniel	2%	13%	32%	35%	15%	3%	-
20	CZYZEWSKI Konrad R.	1%	6%	21%	33%	27%	11%	2%
21	XU Michael	12%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
22	WIND Nicky E.	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	24%
23	REYES Kyle	12%	33%	35%	16%	3%	-
24	CHEN Leo	4%	19%	35%	29%	12%	2%
25	LIU Vincent S.	-	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
26	ZHOU Matthew R.	-	-	1%	5%	25%	45%	24%
27	LEMPERT Levy A.	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
28	TAKEMARU Leo	-	1%	5%	17%	33%	32%	13%
29	MAHONEY Colin M.	1%	8%	26%	36%	22%	6%	1%
30	HUANG Ethan F.	1%	12%	31%	35%	18%	4%	-
31	LI Minghan	6%	25%	35%	24%	8%	1%	-
32	LAU Jeremy Y.	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%
33	LIN William	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	8%	1%
34	TANG Brendan J.	2%	14%	31%	33%	17%	3%
35	QIN Alexander	10%	31%	36%	19%	4%	-
36	MOLINARO Lawrence	41%	41%	15%	3%	-	-	-
37	TEVEBAUGH Andrew	16%	39%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
38	KEEFE Duncan	7%	25%	35%	24%	8%	1%
39	PARKHURST Jr Michael	6%	23%	35%	26%	9%	1%
40	WEHLE Paul	7%	28%	38%	22%	5%	1%	-
41	OLAODE Stephen	28%	40%	23%	7%	1%	-	-
42	HONG Vincent Q.	8%	33%	37%	18%	4%	-	-
43	FISK Ethan	21%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
44	CLAWSON Amzie	9%	30%	37%	20%	4%	-
45	EDELMAN Seth A.	28%	43%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
46	CHAN Alexander S.	27%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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