8th Annual Little Musketeers RYC & RJC

Junior Men's Saber

Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 2:00 PM

Torrance, CA - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CASTRO-SOLIS HUGO ABEL	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
2	SOHN Kevin J.	-	-	-	3%	17%	42%	38%
3	CAPPELLUTI Ryan M.	-	-	5%	30%	45%	20%
3	WINKLER Lucas G.	-	-	-	4%	23%	45%	27%
5	DHINGRA Gian K.	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
6	WANG Eric Y.	-	-	7%	33%	43%	15%
7	TRINH Trevor Z.	-	1%	5%	21%	38%	29%	7%
8	JEFFORDS Alexander	-	-	2%	18%	44%	35%
9	ALKIN Isaac	5%	26%	37%	24%	8%	1%	-
10	AVAKIAN Alec	-	5%	20%	34%	28%	11%	1%
11	JIANG Anthony	-	1%	14%	40%	35%	9%
12	CALLAHAN Jaden P.	-	-	1%	8%	25%	41%	26%
13	SWORDS Evan F.	1%	12%	34%	35%	15%	3%	-
14	HASNAH Henry	-	4%	23%	41%	27%	5%
15	BREIER Satchel E.	-	-	6%	32%	44%	18%
16	CHANG Colin S.	-	3%	14%	31%	33%	17%	3%
17	REYES Xavier M.	-	4%	18%	33%	30%	13%	2%
18	BERGER Oliver	-	-	5%	20%	38%	30%	7%
19	BAUER Hank E.	3%	19%	37%	29%	10%	1%	-
20	LI Joshua L.	-	6%	28%	41%	22%	3%
21	YUN Jaesun	-	-	5%	28%	45%	21%
22	JINICH Ilan R.	-	5%	26%	41%	24%	4%
23	TANN Justin	-	7%	50%	34%	8%	1%
24	REED Samuel J.	45%	42%	12%	1%	-	-
25	RAJA Arnav	-	-	2%	12%	34%	40%	12%
26	BAILEY Nate	3%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%	-
27	LIRA Daine C.	2%	18%	46%	28%	6%	-
28	STONE Esmond A.	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%	-
29	KORINTH Alexander J.	21%	67%	12%	1%	-	-
30	GEORGE Noah	38%	41%	17%	3%	-	-	-
31	VILLA-KOWAL Ivan H.	8%	30%	37%	20%	5%	1%	-
32	WALLACE Taylor	22%	45%	27%	6%	-	-	-
33	CHAN Aidan	5%	42%	38%	13%	2%	-
34	LIU Christopher X.	-	4%	17%	32%	31%	14%	2%
35	WILLIAMS Rhiley	24%	57%	17%	1%	-	-
36	BRISTOL Brijen	2%	15%	34%	32%	14%	3%	-
37	MOLINARI Luke M.	72%	27%	1%	-	-	-
38	DAVIS Oliver	54%	36%	9%	1%	-	-	-
39	PADOS Tamas	82%	17%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.