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South Coast Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Saturday, January 19, 2019 at 8:00 AM

Pasadena, CA - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GODZHIK Zachary	-	-	-	-	4%	28%	68%
2	MUSHER Benjamin J.	-	-	-	-	6%	33%	61%
3	LUH Ethan K.	-	-	-	7%	34%	48%	10%
3	ZHOU Oscar J.	-	-	1%	8%	32%	45%	15%
5	OH Jaden	1%	7%	23%	36%	25%	8%	1%
6	LAKE Wyatt J.	-	-	3%	13%	30%	36%	17%
7	YAKUSHKIN Ernest D.	-	-	-	1%	11%	42%	47%
8	CHOU Jared T.	-	-	2%	11%	32%	39%	15%
9	PIESNER Zachary C.	-	-	2%	9%	27%	40%	22%
10	AIBEL Hudson J.	-	1%	8%	23%	35%	25%	7%
11	GOBBO Alexander	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
12	NORIEGA Julian	-	2%	14%	35%	37%	11%	-
13	WANG Logan	1%	11%	33%	35%	16%	4%	-
14	LI Peihong	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	31%	10%
15	WONG Matthew H.	1%	6%	26%	42%	21%	3%	-
16	JI Evan	-	5%	18%	32%	30%	13%	2%
17	LE Jacob W.	-	1%	5%	22%	40%	29%	3%
18	MARTIN IV Elmer D.	-	2%	13%	31%	36%	16%	2%
19	NGUYEN Liam	-	2%	13%	33%	36%	15%	1%
20	WONG Antonio	-	2%	13%	35%	35%	13%	1%
21	DE LA FUENTE Ian	3%	17%	35%	30%	12%	2%	-
22	TAN Peter	1%	6%	20%	33%	28%	12%	2%
23	RENTERIA Emiliano	4%	19%	32%	28%	13%	3%	-
24	KIM Aiden	1%	6%	22%	35%	27%	9%	1%
25	PONG Caleb J.	1%	9%	26%	34%	22%	7%	1%
26	KEITH HUDSON	16%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-	-
27	LLIDO Soren	30%	43%	22%	5%	-	-	-
28	AGEYEV Aleksey	10%	34%	39%	16%	2%	-	-
29	VIANNA Guilherme	8%	28%	36%	22%	6%	1%	-
30	BAUER Roman	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	-	-
31	FRCEK Armand A.	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	1%	-
32	ADAMS Jackson	9%	28%	34%	21%	6%	1%	-
33	SHPOLYANSKY Jax F.	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-	-
34	CORN Naael S.	7%	27%	37%	23%	6%	1%	-
35	WANG Rui Qin	4%	18%	32%	28%	13%	3%	-
36	QIU Tengjie	8%	38%	40%	13%	1%	-	-
37	NG Micah	1%	11%	32%	36%	17%	3%	-
38	HAHN Jacob	16%	39%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
39	ULLOA Trent J.	5%	24%	39%	26%	6%	-	-
40	SIDDIQI Amman	39%	42%	16%	2%	-	-	-
41	SIPKINS Theodore	6%	35%	40%	17%	3%	-	-
42	LEE Benjamin	7%	29%	39%	21%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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