Rising Stars at UFA Y8-Y10-Y12-Y14 Unrated

Unrated Y-12 Mixed Foil

Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 9:00 AM

UFA - Canoga Park, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JI Evan	-	5%	21%	36%	29%	9%
2	PIESNER Zachary C.	-	-	4%	26%	49%	20%
3	OROSZLAN Benjamin	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	30%	10%
3	WONG Antonio	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	20%
5	AGEYEV Aleksey	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	< 1%
6	PONG Caleb J.	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	4%
7	CHANG Elizabeth	1%	6%	20%	33%	28%	12%	2%
8	AYUPOVA AMELIYA	-	3%	20%	39%	30%	8%
9	MARTIN IV Elmer D.	1%	8%	25%	35%	23%	7%	1%
10	KIM Luke	2%	18%	45%	32%	4%	-
11	OTEYZA Camille	2%	14%	31%	33%	17%	3%
12	FRCEK Armand A.	3%	19%	40%	30%	7%	1%
13	LEE Dylan	4%	18%	35%	30%	11%	1%
14	OLSHANSKY Eliora S.	5%	20%	33%	27%	12%	3%	-
15	DING SHENGLANG	-	2%	16%	38%	34%	10%
16	ASHJIAN Nicolas	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
17	HWANG Amy	7%	24%	35%	25%	8%	1%
18	RAINS Jackson T.	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
19	QIU Tengjie	15%	39%	34%	11%	1%	-
20	KIM Aiden	-	1%	13%	38%	37%	10%
21	BARTON Trent	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	10%
22	HOU Tina	1%	9%	29%	38%	21%	4%
23	LEE Kaden	1%	6%	20%	33%	27%	11%	2%
24	WONG Isabella	19%	44%	30%	6%	-	-
25	WU James	16%	42%	33%	8%	-	-
26	GRITCHEN Alex	3%	14%	28%	31%	18%	6%	1%
27	TEPMAN Alexandra D.	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	-
28	DANIELYANTS Gabriela	18%	43%	31%	7%	1%	-
29	LOW Lance	2%	15%	33%	33%	15%	2%
30	HOU Annie	3%	16%	32%	30%	15%	3%	-
31	URRUTIA Allie	2%	27%	43%	23%	4%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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