Wang Memorial ROC and RYC

Div I-A Men's Foil

Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 11:00 AM

Arlington, TX - Arlington, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	GRIFFIN John O.	-	-	-	5%	31%	63%
2	BRATTON Jack S.	-	-	2%	12%	38%	48%
3	PARKINS Benjamin B.	-	-	-	4%	29%	66%
3	CHOI Peter J.	-	5%	22%	40%	27%	5%
5	DICKSON Farr R.	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
6	WANG Christopher M.	-	1%	13%	40%	39%	7%
7	DESHMUKH Ayush	1%	9%	31%	41%	17%	2%
8	HAMILTON Bogdan A.	-	-	1%	12%	39%	48%
9	RUFFNER Blake W.	1%	12%	34%	37%	15%	1%
9	LOVERAS Orlando S.	1%	12%	32%	37%	16%	2%
11	BARLETTA Joseph	-	4%	18%	38%	33%	7%
12	SOMANI Dhruv	1%	7%	26%	40%	24%	3%
13	MURRAY Maximo	3%	22%	40%	27%	7%	1%
14	STEPHENS Maximilian A.	1%	9%	31%	40%	18%	2%
15	KIM Louis	19%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-
16	JAUME Andrei	9%	34%	38%	16%	3%	-
17	SHIBU Pranav	-	4%	21%	41%	29%	5%
18	CONVERSE Warren D.	17%	61%	20%	2%	-	-
19	NEWHARD Noah A.	3%	22%	40%	27%	7%	-
20	YANG Andrew	2%	18%	41%	31%	7%	-
21	HACKER Zac R.	1%	7%	25%	39%	24%	4%
22	SHOURDS Shalyn W.	7%	28%	38%	21%	5%	-
23	FREEMAN Paris	12%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
24	ABDELGAWAD Abdelrahman	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	-
24	QUINONES Diego A.	1%	16%	41%	33%	9%	-
26	GUO Zachary	46%	41%	12%	1%	-	-
27	YEE michael	18%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-
28	MONTAGUE Dante	33%	44%	19%	4%	-	-
29	KLEPKO Gleb	21%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
30	BYLAK Mitchell	33%	43%	20%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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