Garden State RYC + Non-Regional Cadet

Y-14 Women's Foil

Saturday, March 23, 2019 at 4:00 PM

South Plainfield, NJ - South Plainfield, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	DAVIA Daniella V.	-	-	-	3%	28%	69%
2	FELLUS Talia E.	12%	32%	34%	17%	4%	-
3	MCGILLION-MOORE Katie	-	-	-	2%	18%	80%
3	SU Michelle	1%	5%	20%	35%	30%	10%
5	MAESTRADO Ashley R.	7%	33%	38%	18%	4%	-
6	ADAMS KIM Natalie	1%	9%	25%	35%	23%	6%
7	WU Julianna Y.	-	13%	39%	38%	10%
8	ZHANG Rongrui	5%	21%	35%	28%	11%	2%
9	PERLMAN Talia	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
10	LEE Lavender	2%	13%	30%	33%	17%	4%
11	OLIVEIRA Lavinia M.	11%	32%	36%	18%	3%	-
12	GU EMILY	-	1%	9%	35%	47%	9%
13	ZHAO Aileen Y.	-	1%	9%	32%	41%	17%
14	FURST Chloe	2%	27%	45%	23%	4%
15	WILLIS Fletcher L.	5%	22%	37%	28%	8%	-
16	WANG Jasmine	6%	25%	37%	25%	6%	-
17	WANG Chloe	-	5%	22%	38%	28%	7%
18	CHO Rebecca H.	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	24%
19	LIN Victoria T.	2%	15%	34%	35%	14%	1%
20	SLASKI Caroline O.	4%	25%	43%	23%	4%	-
21	RAI Ananya	14%	40%	36%	10%	1%	-
22	ROY Layla	1%	21%	44%	29%	6%
23	FU Qihan	4%	18%	33%	30%	13%	2%
23	HOU Wendong	1%	8%	30%	43%	17%	1%
25	SUNG Yoomin	17%	41%	32%	9%	1%	-
26	MCNEILLY-ANTA Isabela	7%	28%	38%	22%	5%	-
27	LEE Kaitlyn	85%	14%	1%	-	-
28	QIAN Zhiyan	19%	42%	30%	8%	1%	-
29	TANG Sophia	50%	38%	11%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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