South Coast Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJC

Y-14 Women's Épée

Sunday, January 19, 2020 at 11:00 AM

Pasadena, CA - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GEBALA Natalie Brooke A.	-	-	-	1%	6%	32%	61%
2	PEHLIVANI Zara	-	1%	8%	31%	44%	17%
3	LABRACHE Ella P.	-	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	22%
3	NELSON-LOVE Lily B.	-	-	-	6%	32%	62%
5	SIVAGAR Fiona	-	2%	12%	28%	35%	20%	4%
6	KIM Zoe L.	-	-	2%	16%	44%	38%
7	YAO Yilin	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%	-
8	NGUYEN Tallulah	1%	8%	29%	40%	20%	2%
9	LAVERY Chloe K.	-	-	-	1%	10%	38%	51%
10	WANG Nora	-	-	1%	6%	22%	41%	31%
11	GAURIAT Jade S.	3%	23%	40%	26%	7%	-
12	PECK Maia A.	-	6%	26%	41%	23%	4%
13	HSIU Elizabeth	23%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
14	LEE Rachel	-	2%	12%	33%	39%	14%	1%
15	BARNOW Sasha	-	4%	17%	34%	32%	12%	1%
16	LEE Natasha	-	4%	21%	40%	30%	5%
17	NGUYEN Jolie T.	-	1%	10%	27%	35%	21%	5%
18	BARBARA Camille	1%	5%	18%	32%	30%	13%	2%
19	BUSH emma	-	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
20	WOLTERBEEK Catherine	6%	26%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
21	CHEN Clara	5%	26%	42%	22%	4%	-
22	LO Sabrina S.	-	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%
23	HAU Olivia	1%	10%	29%	34%	20%	6%	1%
24	YPHANTIDES Anthi	-	-	5%	19%	39%	31%	5%
25	KIM Jayna	6%	23%	34%	25%	10%	2%	-
26	FOREMAN Elizabeth	-	-	1%	8%	32%	48%	11%
27	ERDOGAN necla	47%	39%	12%	2%	-	-
28	MAHAL Riya	6%	26%	39%	23%	5%	-	-
29	HUANG Lanlan	18%	37%	30%	12%	2%	-	-
30	YAN Grace	9%	38%	38%	14%	2%	-
31	RODARTE Angelina	1%	8%	23%	34%	25%	9%	1%
32	WANG Angelina	28%	41%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
33	MOHEBI Neeka	1%	11%	31%	37%	17%	3%	-
34	BENNETT Vienne	3%	19%	35%	30%	11%	2%	-
35	TURIANO Nascharene	6%	26%	38%	22%	6%	1%	-
36	FENG Elaine	7%	32%	40%	18%	3%	-
37	GLUCKMAN Tori	2%	17%	35%	30%	13%	3%	-
38	XU Katelyn	55%	38%	6%	-	-	-	-
39	COSCI Angelina	48%	40%	11%	1%	-	-
40	LANGEVIN Sophie	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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