South Coast Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, January 19, 2020 at 1:30 PM

Pasadena, CA - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KIM Katherine	-	-	1%	8%	28%	43%	19%
2	PENG Amber L.	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
3	CHEW Alexis T.	-	1%	13%	38%	37%	11%
3	SHUM Elizabeth	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%
5	SEIGEL Norah	-	-	3%	19%	44%	34%
6	RANDOLPH Piper	-	-	2%	17%	47%	34%
7	LEE Ji Ahn	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
8	WALL Sophia	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%
9	RAO Sonia D.	2%	10%	26%	33%	21%	6%	1%
10	CABALU Alaina	5%	28%	42%	21%	4%	-
11	GUAN Sophie	-	2%	10%	25%	33%	23%	6%
12	OLSHANSKY Eliora S.	2%	11%	28%	34%	20%	5%
13	SHUM Maya	2%	15%	36%	35%	12%	1%
14	DO Leila	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
15	CHEN Chloe I.	-	2%	13%	35%	38%	12%
16	CHOI Kailyn	13%	34%	34%	15%	3%	-
17	DANG Elizabeth H.	-	3%	16%	40%	33%	8%
18	SUN Emily	1%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
19	GAMRADT Taylor	4%	17%	31%	30%	15%	4%	-
20	KETTELLE Molly	4%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%
21	SALAZAR Therese	33%	43%	20%	4%	-	-
22	OTEYZA Camille	3%	15%	31%	31%	16%	4%	-
23	GUAN Sydney	1%	9%	30%	41%	18%	2%
24	WANG Brina	34%	44%	19%	3%	-	-
25	HOU Tina	6%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%
26	JANEW Anastasia	2%	14%	35%	35%	13%	1%
27	JEON Emily H.	2%	12%	32%	35%	17%	3%	-
28	TSANG Catherine	9%	27%	34%	22%	8%	1%	-
29	HWANG Amy	9%	35%	37%	16%	3%	-
30	HE Yahan (Belinda)	8%	39%	41%	11%	1%	-
30	PATEL Ishwari	16%	42%	32%	9%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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