Wang Memorial ROC & RYC

Div I-A Women's Épée

Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 9:00 AM

Arlington, TX - Arlington, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ISERT Sarah	-	5%	21%	38%	29%	7%
2	LABBE Kathryn M.	-	4%	17%	34%	32%	12%
3	MCFADDEN Christa M.	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	32%
3	BALAKRISHNAN Monica S.	-	1%	9%	30%	40%	20%
5	PHILLIPS Summer E.	-	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	7%
6	WILLIAMS NaRaye P.	-	-	-	4%	18%	42%	36%
7	MEHROTRA Anya	1%	6%	22%	35%	28%	8%
8	MCCUTCHEN Lauren	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	2%
9	LIU Christina A.	1%	6%	22%	38%	27%	7%
10	BOYS Nishta B.	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	19%
11	RUNIONS Emersyn	-	3%	19%	38%	31%	9%
12	WALLER Sarah I.	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
13	GITHENS Gracyn J.	6%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%
14	LIM Clarice	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
15	SUMRALL Emily M.	1%	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%
16	FILIPPOV Nika D.	3%	16%	33%	32%	15%	3%
17	CHERNIS Zoe C.	-	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%
18	CHERUKURI Maya	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
19	HUNTER Madison	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
20	SMIK Leonie A.	2%	11%	29%	34%	19%	4%
21	SANTA MARIA Luisa F.	2%	24%	41%	26%	7%	1%
22	ZHU-HILL Alice A.	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
23	TADLOCK Christine M.	18%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-
24	PATEL Aditi S.	7%	28%	38%	21%	5%	-
25	CAVNAR Peyton	21%	39%	28%	10%	2%	-
26	PANES Mirza	36%	42%	18%	4%	-	-
27	MOTON Mckenzie R.	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	5%	-
28	PALMER Katherine A.	37%	48%	13%	2%	-	-	-
29	DEMKOV Ariadna	15%	37%	33%	13%	3%	-	-
30	LABBE Audrey R.	5%	29%	40%	21%	5%	-
31	METZ Anna	81%	18%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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