Wang Memorial ROC & RYC

Div I-A Men's Saber

Sunday, March 1, 2020 at 8:00 AM

Arlington, TX - Arlington, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	ESCUETA Tony V.	-	-	2%	13%	41%	45%
2	GREEN James (Bud)	-	-	4%	25%	45%	26%
3	DESAI Drewv D.	-	-	1%	6%	33%	60%
3	ZHOU Brian	-	-	5%	41%	42%	12%
5	JUNG Junhwan	-	3%	20%	42%	29%	6%
6	BANNERMAN Andrew J.	-	2%	16%	39%	35%	8%
7	CHON Taylor A.	-	1%	11%	37%	38%	12%
8	SUSANTO Samuel	3%	18%	37%	32%	10%
9	MAGUIRE Matthew V.	-	1%	8%	33%	42%	17%
10	HENRY Dillon P.	-	-	1%	18%	47%	33%
11	KOSURI Harsha	3%	19%	38%	30%	9%	1%
12	SMITH Kyle D.	3%	19%	39%	31%	8%
13	ESCUETA Jr Antonio V.	-	2%	14%	37%	39%	8%
14	NGUYEN Andrew	14%	36%	34%	14%	2%
15	HURST Alexander	1%	16%	45%	30%	7%	1%
16	YANG Ethan	14%	52%	29%	5%	-	-
17	CONINE Tanner C.	-	-	1%	23%	51%	26%
18	MENTA Varun	1%	11%	32%	38%	17%
19	MCNALLY Christopher	23%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-
20	GODFREY Samuel	32%	46%	19%	2%	-	-
21	GRAF Andrew J.	1%	11%	38%	36%	12%	1%
22	CADAMBE Rishi	25%	50%	21%	3%	-	-
23	DOMINGUEZ Ernest	19%	47%	31%	3%	-	-
24	FOWBLE Chance	8%	30%	37%	20%	4%	-
25	ZHU Charlie	42%	44%	12%	1%	-	-
26	HANSON Liam	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%
27	HAYWARD Donald	18%	48%	33%	2%	-	-
28	SEALE Cougar	7%	29%	39%	21%	4%	-
28	ZHANG Tianran	67%	30%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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