THRUST WINTER RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Saturday, February 8, 2020 at 12:00 PM

Suffern, NY - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SEO IRENE Y.	-	-	-	2%	15%	42%	40%
2	WU Julianna Y.	-	1%	8%	34%	42%	15%
3	SARTORI Taylor M.	-	-	-	-	4%	29%	67%
3	LEE Lavender	-	-	3%	19%	41%	31%	6%
5	TAN Kaitlyn N.	-	-	-	-	6%	34%	59%
6	ROY Layla	-	-	-	5%	23%	46%	26%
7	LIN Victoria T.	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	21%	3%
8	FU Qihan	-	4%	27%	42%	23%	4%
9	ORVANANOS Anice	-	-	-	4%	21%	46%	28%
10	KOKES Gwendolen	-	-	1%	11%	33%	41%	14%
11	TOBIN Brean	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	19%	2%
12	XIANG Emma	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
13	EYER Hailey M.	-	-	7%	29%	44%	20%
14	SOLDATOVA Maria	-	-	8%	32%	41%	17%	2%
15	FELLUS Talia E.	1%	11%	32%	36%	17%	3%
16	LIU Sophia	-	7%	27%	38%	23%	5%
17	SU Michelle	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	14%
18	CHO Rebecca H.	-	-	5%	24%	45%	27%
19	WILLIS Fletcher L.	-	-	3%	15%	39%	37%	6%
20	AMR HOSSNY Sara	-	-	2%	19%	45%	33%
21	THIRUVENGADAM Harini	11%	50%	32%	6%	-	-
22	CHEN Jasmine	2%	23%	48%	23%	4%	-
23	NULAND Zoe	6%	27%	39%	23%	5%	-	-
24	SHAH Aanya	43%	45%	11%	1%	-	-	-
25	ZHENG Julie	-	5%	30%	41%	20%	3%
26	HOU Wendong	-	3%	20%	40%	29%	8%	1%
27	SHA Yi Ling	-	1%	10%	38%	39%	12%
28	SHMAY Anastasia	1%	19%	38%	30%	11%	1%
29	CHEN Thea	27%	54%	17%	2%	-	-
30	GOLBIN Ariella J.	-	6%	28%	39%	21%	5%	-
31	JIANG Claire	1%	11%	31%	37%	16%	2%	-
32	VAYNBERG Ellen	7%	28%	39%	22%	5%	-	-
33	ZHOU Catherine	-	1%	10%	45%	35%	8%	-
34	YURKOVA Mariia	-	1%	13%	35%	36%	14%	2%
35	ZHOU Sophia	7%	29%	38%	21%	5%	-	-
35	WANG Rachael	15%	39%	33%	11%	2%	-	-
37	LAPPER Whitney P.	29%	43%	23%	5%	-	-	-
38	LEE Kaitlyn	2%	16%	35%	33%	12%	2%	-
39	BENNETT Abigail	-	7%	31%	40%	19%	3%	-
40	DALBERG Meadow	53%	40%	7%	-	-	-	-
41	CHEN Miley	29%	60%	10%	-	-	-	-
42	COHEN-RAYMOND Beatrix	29%	51%	18%	2%	-	-	-
43	CHAGARES Isabella	52%	41%	6%	-	-	-
44	KEM Madeleine	20%	40%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
45	UNGERER Frieda	78%	20%	2%	-	-	-
46	JIN Wendy	65%	30%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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