THRUST WINTER RYC/RJCC

Junior Women's Saber

Saturday, February 8, 2020 at 4:00 PM

Suffern, NY - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SHOMAN Jenna	-	-	-	5%	22%	44%	29%
2	TAO Hannah J.	-	-	4%	19%	43%	33%
3	KATZ Anat	-	-	3%	13%	32%	36%	16%
3	SATHYANATH Kailing	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	17%
5	KUZNETSOVA Nastassja	-	2%	16%	40%	34%	8%
6	LIN Angela	1%	6%	22%	34%	26%	9%	1%
7	SUBRAMANIAN Nitika	-	3%	13%	30%	33%	17%	3%
8	ATLURI Sara V.	-	1%	12%	34%	38%	15%
9	CANNON Sophia E.	1%	8%	27%	38%	21%	4%
10	VAN ATTA Grace Y.	-	1%	12%	34%	38%	15%
11	YANG Ashley M.	-	1%	14%	37%	36%	12%
12	ENGELMAN Madeline A.	-	-	1%	10%	30%	41%	18%
13	ROMAGNOLI Isabella	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	30%	10%
14	HILD Nisha	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%
15	KOO Samantha	-	2%	14%	35%	37%	12%
16	SOURIMTO Valeria	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	5%
17	NEWELL Alexia C.	-	3%	18%	41%	32%	7%
17	LI Amanda C.	-	-	4%	20%	44%	33%
19	SHOMAN Miriam	-	2%	16%	39%	34%	9%
20	BAKER Audrey C.	-	6%	28%	40%	22%	4%
21	TIBURCIO Diana	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
22	HULSEBURG Kaitlyn	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
23	YURT Leyla	-	6%	32%	40%	19%	3%
24	SIMONIAN Olivia A.	13%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
25	SINHA Anika	-	5%	21%	37%	27%	8%	1%
26	BINSTOCK Mari I.	3%	24%	39%	26%	8%	1%	-
27	SHAY-TANNAS Zoe	-	4%	18%	35%	31%	11%	1%
27	YUAN Greta	1%	9%	26%	34%	22%	7%	1%
29	SU Emma	1%	19%	43%	29%	7%	1%
30	NAYAK Mira	43%	46%	10%	1%	-	-
31	GIRARDI Aemilia	8%	31%	38%	19%	4%	-
32	LIGH Karis	59%	33%	7%	1%	-	-	-
33	NAYAK Indra	26%	42%	25%	6%	1%	-
34	YANG Kaitlyn H.	-	2%	18%	40%	32%	8%
35	MEDVEDEVA Alexandra	28%	50%	18%	3%	-	-
36	SLOBODSKY Sasha L.	11%	34%	35%	17%	4%	-
37	YU Melinda	2%	19%	37%	30%	10%	2%	-
38	WANG Jianning	4%	37%	41%	15%	2%	-
39	PATNAIK Nastassia	9%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-
40	SHIH Christina	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-
40	BILLETER Mary	31%	50%	17%	2%	-	-
40	CHARLES Caitlin	79%	19%	1%	-	-	-
43	DONG Zihan	44%	45%	10%	1%	-	-
44	JENKINS Scotland	27%	42%	24%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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