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Y-12 Men's Saber

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WANG Eric Y.	-	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
2	QIU Nathan	-	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	21%
3	HOLZ William A.	-	1%	5%	21%	38%	29%	7%
3	ZUBATIY Samuel	-	4%	20%	39%	29%	7%
5	YUN Jaesun	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	28%
6	KAKEHI Nicholas B.	-	-	1%	10%	35%	43%	10%
7	AVAKIAN Alec	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
8	LEE Christopher M.	-	5%	18%	33%	30%	12%	1%
9	JEFFRY Nicholas B.	-	-	-	4%	20%	42%	33%
10	LUO George F.	-	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	31%
11	HJERPE Wade H.	-	4%	19%	34%	29%	11%	2%
12	JEFFRY Christian B.	-	1%	9%	26%	37%	23%	4%
13	PATIL Aaryan A.	-	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%
14	ROSBERG Dashiell W.	1%	6%	23%	36%	27%	7%
15	HUANG Alexander C.	1%	11%	34%	36%	15%	2%
16	JIANG Anthony	-	1%	10%	28%	35%	21%	5%
17	GIANETTO Ethan K.	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	19%	2%
18	CHAN Aidan	3%	16%	32%	30%	14%	3%	-
19	KIM Shaun M.	-	1%	9%	27%	40%	22%
20	LO Konnor	-	5%	24%	40%	26%	5%
21	LIU Christopher X.	-	2%	14%	32%	34%	16%	3%
22	RADY-PENTEK Charles A.	1%	10%	28%	35%	20%	5%	-
23	XU Andrew	-	5%	18%	33%	30%	13%	2%
24	LEWALLEN Reece	12%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
25	HOLZ Daniel	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	8%
26	SHERES Asher	-	3%	13%	31%	34%	16%	2%
27	GUO Ethan	34%	46%	17%	3%	-	-	-
27	STONE Esmond A.	1%	7%	30%	41%	18%	3%	-
29	GAINES Isaac M.	5%	21%	34%	27%	11%	2%	-
30	GAO Albert	3%	26%	40%	24%	6%	1%	-
31	ANDRES Michael	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%	-
32	CHOW William T.	-	2%	10%	25%	35%	23%	5%
33	TANNER Jackson M.	-	6%	23%	36%	26%	8%	1%
34	OKBA Noah A.	8%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
35	YANG Dylan	-	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
36	JOLLY Erik	18%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-
37	REAGAN Matthew	7%	31%	38%	19%	5%	-
38	HRISTOV Kris	4%	23%	39%	26%	8%	1%
39	LINDSEY Aiden	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
40	CHANG Tingkai	10%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-	-
41	NIETO Titus P.	4%	19%	33%	28%	13%	3%	-
42	OSENAR Sam	16%	51%	27%	6%	1%	-	-
43	MARTIN IV Elmer D.	25%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
44	BYON Adrian	50%	38%	10%	1%	-	-	-
45	COOK Cole	9%	32%	38%	18%	4%	-	-
46	BYON Julian	61%	34%	5%	-	-	-
47	KUMAR Sachit	28%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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