SYC - Portland Super Youth Circuit

Y-12 Women's Foil

Saturday, February 8, 2020 at 1:00 PM

Beaverton, OR - Beaverton, OR, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GOOR Viviene E.	-	1%	6%	25%	42%	26%
2	CASTANEDA Keira	-	-	5%	21%	42%	31%
3	NAIR Supriya	-	2%	12%	32%	37%	16%
3	DAVIS Bonnie Z.	-	-	-	4%	17%	41%	38%
5	NISSINOFF Alexandra	1%	9%	27%	37%	21%	4%
6	LUO Sandra J.	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	13%
7	STRUGAR Steliana	1%	10%	32%	38%	17%	3%
8	CHANG Elizabeth	-	1%	8%	28%	41%	21%
9	ZHUANG Christina	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
10	SUN Ruoxi	-	-	1%	11%	39%	48%
11	LEE Allison	2%	15%	37%	34%	12%	1%
12	WANG Zoie Z.	-	-	5%	22%	44%	29%
13	HOBSON Ava	1%	12%	35%	36%	14%	2%
14	YAN Noelle	4%	20%	37%	28%	10%	1%
15	RAO Sonia D.	1%	12%	33%	35%	15%	2%
16	TSANG Catherine	3%	25%	39%	25%	7%	1%
17	HONG Elizabeth R.	-	6%	22%	37%	28%	8%
18	VO Bao-Vy	2%	11%	27%	33%	20%	6%	1%
19	MANIKTALA Prisha	-	5%	21%	38%	29%	7%
20	CHEN Ella	-	3%	17%	38%	34%	8%
21	HAN Ashley	1%	9%	30%	37%	19%	3%
22	HAN Crystal	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	19%
23	KANDL-ZHANG Lea	1%	9%	30%	37%	19%	3%
24	XUE Ellie	-	4%	15%	30%	32%	17%	3%
25	LIU Emma	3%	15%	31%	31%	16%	4%	-
26	HOVAGHIMIAN Fira	6%	22%	34%	26%	10%	2%	-
27	ZHANG Selena	4%	26%	40%	24%	6%	-
28	CHU Camille	21%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-
29	CHEN Chloe I.	1%	6%	20%	33%	28%	11%	1%
30	PENG Charlotte	1%	11%	33%	36%	16%	2%
31	BEAVER Ava	20%	42%	29%	8%	1%	-
32	XU Audrey J.	17%	42%	31%	9%	1%	-
33	KIM Rachel	2%	17%	38%	32%	11%	1%
34	GILLIS-PADE Neallie	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	10%
35	ZHENG Zoe	5%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
36	LIPKOVITZ Rivka	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
37	PENG Serena	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
38	LUH Mia P.	28%	44%	22%	5%	-	-
39	CHUN Adelle Ha-Eune	13%	33%	33%	16%	4%	1%	-
40	PIERSON Sophie	62%	32%	6%	-	-	-
41	CHUNG Penelope	66%	29%	5%	-	-	-
42	THOMAS Saejel	35%	44%	18%	3%	-	-
43	MAENG Victoria	37%	42%	18%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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