The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Brentwood Holiday Tournament 2018

Women's Épée

Friday, December 14, 2018 at 11:00 AM

Brentwood High School - Brentwood, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4
1	SLACKMAN Valerie	47%	53%
2	DE JAGER Celine	6%	58%	36%
3	KOWALSKY Rachel A.	14%	47%	39%
5	HERBERT Brooke A.	20%	51%	30%
7	MIZZI Keira	9%	34%	39%	16%	2%
9	WON Jenny	18%	49%	29%	4%
10	BECCHINA Olivia	14%	86%
14	YOUNG Emma N.	1%	8%	30%	42%	19%
17	BUCKLEY Gianna	24%	50%	26%
20	NICOU Nicole	86%	14%
22	CHON Naomi	32%	50%	18%
24	MALONE Meagan	14%	46%	34%	7%
25	BRAR Esha	16%	44%	33%	7%
29	MATTERN Sophia	6%	27%	40%	23%	4%
32	FOXEN Mary	32%	50%	18%
33	KIELY Carolyn	53%	47%
41	ROBERT Lily	12%	46%	42%
48	KIM Suejin	63%	34%	3%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.